About induction, deduction, and transduction

I have noticed a new posting by Ya’acov Ritov on arXiv that discusses what the limits of the scope of Statistics should be:

“The paper argues that a part of the current statistical discussion is not based on the standard firm foundations of the field. Among the examples we consider are prediction into the future, semi-supervised classification, and causality inference based on observational data.”

I do not have currently enough free time to read it at a detailed enough level to make a sensible comment, but this sounds like an interesting discussion! At this stage, I cannot decide whether this is yet again a point about model shifts or if there is a more fundamental issue at stake. (Thankfully, Popper is not mentioned! But Taleb is…) It seems however that the paper claims that prediction about a single object is not statistically valid:

“We believe that predicting the future, that is, predicting one most important future event, is not a statistical task.

and thus that statistics requires a long sequence of experiments to achieve validation, hence falling upon a frequentist justification…

One Response to “About induction, deduction, and transduction”

  1. X: I took a look at this article and got nothing out of it! Mindful of our experience with our last blogging excursion into statistical philosophy, I decided to just leave this comment here rather than featuring on my blog and possibly starting another spiraling discussion. Regarding the above-cited article, I will just comment that, like many classical statisticians, the author of the article seems to have a very idealized view of random sampling.

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