The workshop is a mix of theory, methodology, computational techniques and applications that makes it quite exciting. Although I already gave several versions of my talk in the past year, I still got interesting feedback, in particular a connection between our Savage-Dickey representation and bridge sampling. Among the interesting talks I attended, a few snapshots; both Jim Berger and Dongchu Sun presented new closed form expressions for effective numbers of parameters in complex linear models, Antonio Lijoi covered some mathematics of species estimation models [with some possible connections with Geoff Nicholls' earlier talk on language classification], Chris Holmes exposed the advances he had made since Edinburgh (at least for those of us who attended both meetings), highlighting an interesting link with LDA, both Chris and Matthew Stephens considering direction selection for discrimination and clustering, Peter Müller talked about the analysis of a genetic pathway model represented as a graph, Robert Kohn zoomed through an adaptive particle MCMC algorithm where the likelihood was estimated (with the interesting side comment that what looks as an unbiased estimator from one perspective is also an auxiliary joint likelihood from another perspective) and David Spiegelhalter gave a both hilarious and thought-provoking talk on the “deeper uncertainty” that surrounds statistical models.
Archive for May, 2010
On Friday, a [visiting] friend of my kids pointed out to us an hedgehog crossing our lawn. We watched it for a while meandering in the grass before it vanished through the fence. The same (?) hedgehog came back on Saturday and it was quite unfazed by my presence, so I took a few pictures while it was visiting my rhubarb patch…
I am quite amazed that hedgehogs manage to survive on the very small patches of “nature” remaining around our densely urbanised suburb… (A wild boar made it to the local park a few years ago but this is another scale!) Two years ago, there was actually a family nesting into a pile of leaves but they did not show up last summer and early this year I saw one hedgehog killed on the nearby road. This could have been the mother of the current one… Which I hope will remain in the garden for a long while!
This is the talk I am giving at the workshop on model uncertainty organised by the Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology (CRiSM) at the University of Warwick, on May 30-June 1. Careful readers will notice there is not much difference with my previous talk on the topic, as I only included the Savage-Dickey slides from the talk in San Antonio!
Last morning, I biked with my daughter to the local market as she was looking for a cloth bracelet that is seemingly highly in fashion at her school! The first shop we came upon was selling the thing at an outrageous price and she decided this was not worth the expense. So we walked around till we came by the only haberdasher’s shop in the neighbourhood and I suggested she took a look inside, just in case. As it happened, the haberdasher had got wind of the school fashion and she was selling appropriate pieces of cloth along with the compulsory trinkets! In the end, my daughter got enough material to make eleven of those (transient) bracelets at a cost lower than the original price. A good Saturday lesson in practical economics. (And a fairly unique opportunity for using the word haberdasher which has always sounded somehow military to me, suggesting a type of fighting corps, maybe because of the association with halberd! Anyway, it sounds much more martial than the French mercerie… And its Norman translation mercery.)
Tonight, as I am flying to Birmingham for the CRiSM workshop on Model uncertainty, I will miss my local 5k, La Robinsonnaise, for the first time in a long while. Last year saw the beginning of my sciatica symptoms, while the year before that led to two broken fingers due to a fall during the recovery run… Still, I will miss it as it would have been good practice for the 10k I am running on Thursday afternoon in Vincennes. So I went for a faster run this morning, running the 3k loop in the local park in 11:46 then the second one in 11:22, which is ok given the absence of split training this year. (From what I remember, the best 3k in the 3k-1k-3k split should be around 11:05…) Another disappointment I came upon a few days ago when running with my friends of Insee Paris Club is that I have to wait another year to join the V2 category, as the rules have changed… This obviously means less chances of ending in a good position for the half-marathon in Argentan!