Archive for December, 2010

Le Monde puzzle [52]

Posted in R, Statistics with tags , on December 31, 2010 by xi'an

The last puzzle of the year in Le Monde reads as follows (as far as I understand its wording!):

Iter(n,x,y) is the function


 if (n==1){

 return output

Find the seven-digit number z such that
Iter(6,1,z)=12, Iter(6,2,z)=19, Iter(6,3,z)=29,
and Iter(6,-1,z)=Iter(6,-2,z)=Iter(6,-3,z)=0.

Obviously, the brute-force solution of listing all 90 million seven digit numbers until the six constraints are met is feasible (especially around New Year since the mainframe computer is completely at rest!). However, this sounds like the last resort solution and I thus tried first a simulated annealing approach already tested for the sudoku problem a few years ago… (This puzzle is actually of the same nature as the sudoku problem,  in particular because we do know when we find the solution, except that checking for the six conditions to hold is apparently not so straightforward. For us if not for the computer.) Continue reading

the half-made world

Posted in Books with tags , , , , on December 31, 2010 by xi'an

“He was–ah–he was carving the roast at dinner, for the Dean of the Faculty of Mathematics and the Bishop of Lodenstein, and others. And the effort, and the occasion, were too much for him. He swelled up in his shirtsleeves and burst. He fell with his mustaches in the gravy.” put the first chapter of this book on-line and it was original enough to make me buy it… I read the remainder of the half-made world over the past week and really enjoyed the weirdness of it! It came as part of the steampunk month on but it blurs the genre boundaries as it also qualifies as weird WestContinue reading

Posters at Adap[/MCM]‘skiii

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , on December 30, 2010 by xi'an

Due to a very small number of (declared) submissions—contrasting with the stable number of attendees—for the poster session on the evening of January 4 at Adap’skii, I have decided to cancel this session. The posters will be presented on the evenings of Wednesday, January 5 and Thursday, January 6, during MCMSki III. This will ensure an adequate audience and level of interaction for the poster presenters.

Christophe Andrieu being unfortunately unavailable at the present time, I am also unable to update the webpage prior to the meeting. Besides the above cancellation, the other changes in the program are

  • Jan. 3, 6pm: the discussant of Faming Liang’s talk is Pierre Jacob (Université Paris Dauphine & CREST)
  • Jan. 4, 8:30am: the discussant of Yves Atchadé is Luke Bornn (UBC, Vancouver)

Looking forward to the meetings in a few days! And to the 3 feet of fresh snow!!!

More typos in Chapter 5

Posted in Books, R, Statistics with tags , , , , , on December 29, 2010 by xi'an

Following Ashley’s latest comments on Chapter 5 of Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R, I realised Example 5.5 was totally off-the-mark! Not only the representation of the likelihood should have used prod instead of mean, not only the constant should call the val argument of integrate, not only integrate  uses lower and upper rather than from and to, but also the approximation is missing a scale factor of 10, squared root of the sample size… The corrected R code is thus

> cau=rcauchy(10^2)
> mcau=median(cau)
> rcau=diff(quantile(cau,c(.25,.75)))/sqrt(10^2)
> f=function(x){
+   z=dcauchy(outer(x,cau,FUN="-"))
+   apply(z,1,prod)}
> fcst=integrate(f,lower=-20,upper=20)$val
> ft=function(x){f(x)/fcst}
> g=function(x){dt((x-mcau)/rcau,df=49)/rcau}
> curve(ft,from=-1,to=1,xlab="",ylab="",lwd=2)
> curve(g,add=T,lty=2,col="steelblue",lwd=2)

and the corrected Figure 5.5 is therefore as follows. Note that the fit by the t distribution is not as perfect as before. A normal approximation would do better.

This mistake is most embarrassing and I cannot fathom how I came with this unoperating program! (The more embarrassing as Cauchy‘s house is about 1k away from mine…) I am thus quite grateful to Ashley for her detailed study of this example.

Morning light

Posted in Mountains, pictures with tags , on December 29, 2010 by xi'an


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