## differences between Bayes factors and normalised maximum likelihood

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , on November 19, 2014 by xi'an

A recent arXival by Heck, Wagenmaker and Morey attracted my attention: Three Qualitative Differences Between Bayes Factors and Normalized Maximum Likelihood, as it provides an analysis of the differences between Bayesian analysis and Rissanen’s Optimal Estimation of Parameters that I reviewed a while ago. As detailed in this review, I had difficulties with considering the normalised likelihood

$p(x|\hat\theta_x) \big/ \int_\mathcal{X} p(y|\hat\theta_y)\,\text{d}y$

as the relevant quantity. One reason being that the distribution does not make experimental sense: for instance, how can one simulate from this distribution? [I mean, when considering only the original distribution.] Working with the simple binomial B(n,θ) model, the authors show the quantity corresponding to the posterior probability may be constant for most of the data values, produces a different upper bound and hence a different penalty of model complexity, and may differ in conclusion for some observations. Which means that the apparent proximity to using a Jeffreys prior and Rissanen’s alternative does not go all the way. While it is a short note and only focussed on producing an illustration in the Binomial case, I find it interesting that researchers investigate the Bayesian nature (vs. artifice!) of this approach…

Posted in pictures, Running, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , on December 2, 2011 by xi'an

While (still!) looking at questions on Cross Validated on Saturday morning, just before going out for a chilly run in the park, I noticed an interesting question about a light bulb problem. Once you get the story out of the way, it boils down to the fact that, when comparing two binomial probabilities, p1 and p2, based on a Bernoulli sample of size n, and when selecting the MAP probability, having either n=2k-1 or n=2k observations lead to the same (frequentist) probability of making the right choice. The details are provided in my answers here and there. It is a rather simple combinatoric proof, once you have the starting identity [W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, vol. 1, 1968, [II.8], eqn (8.6)]

${2k-1 \choose i-1} + {2k-1 \choose i} = {2k \choose i}$

but I wonder if there exists a more statistical explanation to this weak information paradox…

## another lottery coincidence

Posted in R, Statistics with tags , , , on August 30, 2011 by xi'an

Once again, meaningless figures are published about a man who won the French lottery (Le Loto) for the second time. The reported probability of the event is indeed one chance out of 363 (US) trillions (i.e., billions in the metric system. or 1012)… This number is simply the square of

${49 \choose 5}\times{10 \choose 1} = 19,068,840$

which is the number of possible loto grids. Thus, the probability applies to the event “Mr so-&-so plays a winning grid of Le Loto on May 6, 1995 and a winning grid of Le Loto on July 27, 2011“. But this is not the event that occured: one of the bi-weekly winners of Le Loto won a second time and this was spotted by Le Loto spokepersons. If we take the specific winner for today’s draw, Mrs such-&-such, who played bi-weekly one single grid since the creation of Le Loto in 1976, i.e. about 3640 times, the probability that she won earlier is of the order of

$1-\left(1-\frac{1}{{49\choose 5}\times{10\choose 1}}\right)^{3640}=2\cdot 10^{-4}$.

There are thus two chances in 10 thousands to win again for a given (unigrid) winner, not much indeed, but no billion involved either. Now, this is also the probability that, for a given draw (like today’s draw), one of the 3640 previous winners wins again (assuming they all play only one grid,  play independently from each other, &tc.). Over a given year, i.e. over 104 draws, the probability that there is no second-time winner is thus approximately

$\left(1-\frac{1}{2\cdot10^4}\right)^{104} = 0.98,$

showing that within a year there is a 2% chance to find an earlier winner. Not so extreme, isn’t it?! Therefore, less bound to make the headlines…

Now, the above are rough and conservative calculations. The newspaper articles about the double winner report that the man is playing about 1000 euros a month (this is roughly the minimum wage!), representing the equivalent of 62 grids per draw (again I am simplifying to get the correct order of magnitude). If we repeat the above computations, assuming this man has played 62 grids per draw from the beginning of the game in 1976 till now, the probability that he wins again conditional on the fact that he won once is

$1-\left(1-\frac{62}{{49 \choose 5}\times{10 \choose 1}}\right)^{3640} = 0.012$,

a small but not impossible event. (And again, we consider the probability only for Mr so-&-so, while the event of interest does not.) (I wrote this post before Alex pointed out the four-time lottery winner in Texas, whose “luck” seems more related with the imperfections of the lottery process…)

I also stumbled on this bogus site providing the “probabilities” (based on the binomial distribution, nothing less!) for each digit in Le Loto, no need for further comments. (Even the society that runs Le Loto hints at such practices, by providing the number of consecutive draws a given number has not appeared, with the sole warning “N’oubliez jamais que le hasard ne se contrôle pas“, i.e. “Always keep in mind that chance cannot be controlled“…!)