Archive for xkcd

editor’s nightmare

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, University life with tags , , , , , on June 24, 2014 by xi'an

a refutation of Johnson’s PNAS paper

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , on February 11, 2014 by xi'an

Jean-Christophe Mourrat recently arXived a paper “P-value tests and publication bias as causes for high rate of non-reproducible scientific results?”, intended as a rebuttal of Val Johnson’s PNAS paper. The arguments therein are not particularly compelling. (Just as ours’ may sound so to the author.)

“We do not discuss the validity of this [Bayesian] hypothesis here, but we explain in the supplementary material that if taken seriously, it leads to incoherent results, and should thus be avoided for practical purposes.”

The refutation is primarily argued as a rejection of the whole Bayesian perspective. (Although we argue Johnson’ perspective is not that Bayesian…) But the argument within the paper is much simpler: if the probability of rejection under the null is at most 5%, then the overall proportion of false positives is also at most 5% and not 20% as argued in Johnson…! Just as simple as this. Unfortunately, the author mixes conditional and unconditional, frequentist and Bayesian probability models. As well as conditioning upon the data and conditioning upon the rejection region… Read at your own risk. Continue reading

an easy pun on conditional risk[cd]

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics with tags , , , , on September 22, 2013 by xi'an

the original xkcd entry on Bayes [with its mistake]

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics with tags , on July 13, 2013 by xi'an

Bayes is back on xkcd

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics with tags , , , on July 12, 2013 by xi'an


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