Un saggio dopo Rimini

Following the econometrics conference in Rimini last summer, I was asked to submit an essay on the theme “The 21st Century Belongs to Bayes” for the local journal Review of Economic Analysis and I eventually came up with enough time last weekend to turn my slides into a rough essay on the points supporting a Bayesian 21st (or rather 3rd if we start the calendar in 1763) Century… I have posted the current version on arXiv, even though it mostly is a mix of The Bayesian Choice concluding chapter and of quotes from Bayesian Analysis written by Andrew Gelman paper and its discussants. Since it does not account for Russell Davison’s points, I will certainly have to write a rejoinder or an edited version of this paper. At this stage, Bayesian readers (if any) may find the tone much too agnostic but I made mine Robert Wolpert’s—at a Valencia 6 dinner table, so this may be unacknowledged by the author himself!—main argument for being a Bayesian: “It’s easy., it works, it’s fun!” Those are good enough reasons to attract new users…