## Quick visit to A Treatise on Probability

**F**ollowing my advanced graduate course at **CREST** about Jeffreys’ ** Theory of Probability**, and a remark in Taleb’s

**, I was planning to cover John Maynard Keynes’**

*Fooled by Randomness**this year. After reading the book over the past weeks, and pondering it over the nights at the*

**A Treatise On Probability****conference, I decided it could not provide enough material for a whole two week course. Since I was starting today just getting off the plane from Detroit, I decided to fall back on my earlier course on Jeffreys’**

*Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis***and to include comments on Keynes’**

*Theory of Probability**wherever they fitted… Indeed, I found that most of the book focussed on philosophical foundations of probability that were of no interest for me nor for my students, while the statistics part was not innovative enough. I will eventually write a review of the book listing those drawbacks but the main aspect of Keynes’ statistical perspective is to be highly suspicious of models and thus to favour empirical techniques that are close to modern bootstrap. In particular, Keynes criticises inverse probability techniques and Laplace’s perspective all over the book… This is thus an interesting historical foray but this memoir of Keynes prepared for a Fellowship application does not stand within the influential books of the 20th century for a good reason.*

**A Treatise On Probability**
February 19, 2012 at 12:13 pm

[…] fallacy some of the opponents interviewed in the paper do not grasp. (Which reminded me of Keynes seemingly going the same way.) The short paragraph written on causality and Hill’s criteria […]

March 21, 2011 at 12:13 am

[…] clearly is a staunch supported of Jeffreys, if not of de Finetti. (Curiously, he also seems to hold Keynes in high respect, despite the later’s dismissal of Laplace.) Given that the book spans 40 […]

October 1, 2010 at 12:11 am

[…] Keynes [assessed] A few days ago, I got the following review of my paper on Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability, review which, while being rather negative, is quite […]

September 29, 2010 at 4:13 pm

[…] Keynes [assessment] A few days ago, I got the following review of my paper on Keynes, review which, while being rather negative, is quite fair. When I looked at the title, I […]

March 30, 2010 at 12:23 am

[…] When completing my comments on Keynes’ A Treatise On Probability, thanks to an Og’s reader, I found that Keynes is held in high esteem (as a probabilist) by the members of the Society for […]

March 23, 2010 at 5:32 am

I will be looking foward to read this review. It seems to be in contrast with the first Amazon review:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1603861181?ie=UTF8&tag=chrprobboo-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1603861181

best regards

Manoel Galdino

March 23, 2010 at 7:32 am

Thanks for pointing out this review, I am indeed quite skeptical of the definition of non-numerical probabilities as interval estimates. The main part of the book is about the philosophical foundations of probability, on which I have no expertise. The statistical part is quite limited, mostly following Lexis.