Lack of confidence is back

While in Bristol, I received the very good news that our ABC model choice submission to PNAS had passed the first round, namely, the manuscript was not rejected but instead the editor asks for a revision clarifying our message and the difference with the Bayesian Analysis paper. This revision should thus be manageable, even though the most negative reviewer considers that ABC model choice works rather when using summary statistics that are informative for choosing between the models, a point that sounds rather tautological to me., hence difficult to answer. It is indeed always possible to come up with summary statistics that make the ABC Bayes factor close to the genuine Bayes factor; however this requires a huge computing effort in order to validate the choice by cross-validation. Anyway, I have rather good hopes the paper could eventually be accepted in PNAS, which is obviously a quite exciting prospect! (Thanks to Michael Stumpf for pointing out the missing sentence!)

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