## Bayes on the radio (regrets)

**W**hile running this morning I was reconsidering (over and over) my discussion of Bayes’ formula on the radio and thought I should have turned the presentation of Bayes’ theorem differently. I spent much too much time on the math side of Bayes’ formula and not enough on the stat side. The math aspect is not of real importance as it is a mere reformulation of conditional probabilities. The stat side is what matters as introducing a (prior) distribution on the parameter (space) is the #1 specificity of Bayesian statistics…. And the focus point of most criticisms, as expressed later by the physicist working on the Higgs boson, Dirk Zerwas.

**I** also regret not mentioning that Bayes’ formula was taught in French high schools, as illustrated by the anecdote of Bayes at the bac. And not reacting at the question about Bayes in the courtroom with yet another anecdote of Bayes’ formula been thrown out of the accepted tools by an English court of appeal about a year ago. Oh well, another argument for sticking to the written world.

November 21, 2012 at 1:06 pm

One of my colleagues dropped in yesterday to discuss the “fake Bayes” hypothesis, namely the possibility that Bayes had not written his famous paper…