## Bangalore workshop [ಬೆಂಗಳೂರು ಕಾರ್ಯಾಗಾರ] Second day at the Indo-French Centre for Applied Mathematics and the workshop. Maybe not the most exciting day in terms of talks (as I missed the first two plenary sessions by (a) oversleeping and (b) running across the campus!). However I had a neat talk with another conference participant that led to [what I think are] interesting questions… (And a very good meal in a local restaurant as the guest house had not booked me for dinner!)

To wit: given a target like $\lambda \exp(-\lambda) \prod_{i=1}^n \dfrac{1-\exp(-\lambda y_i)}{\lambda}\quad (*)$

the simulation of λ can be demarginalised into the simulation of $\pi (\lambda,\mathbf{z})\propto \lambda \exp(-\lambda) \prod_{i=1}^n \exp(-\lambda z_i) \mathbb{I}(z_i\le y_i)$

where z is a latent (and artificial) variable. This means a Gibbs sampler simulating λ given z and z given λ can produce an outcome from the target (*). Interestingly, another completion is to consider that the zi‘s are U(0,yi) and to see the quantity $\pi(\lambda,\mathbf{z}) \propto \lambda \exp(-\lambda) \prod_{i=1}^n \exp(-\lambda z_i) \mathbb{I}(z_i\le y_i)$

as an unbiased estimator of the target. What’s quite intriguing is that the quantity remains the same but with different motivations: (a) demarginalisation versus unbiasedness and (b) zi ∼ Exp(λ) versus zi ∼ U(0,yi). The stationary is the same, as shown by the graph below, the core distributions are [formally] the same, … but the reasoning deeply differs. Obviously, since unbiased estimators of the likelihood can be justified by auxiliary variable arguments, this is not in fine a big surprise. Still, I had not thought of the analogy between demarginalisation and unbiased likelihood estimation previously.Here are the R procedures if you are interested:

n=29
y=rexp(n)

T=10^5

#MCMC.1
lam=rep(1,T)

z=runif(n)*y
for (t in 1:T){

lam[t]=rgamma(1,shap=2,rate=1+sum(z))
z=-log(1-runif(n)*(1-exp(-lam[t]*y)))/lam[t]
}

#MCMC.2
fam=rep(1,T)

z=runif(n)*y
for (t in 1:T){

fam[t]=rgamma(1,shap=2,rate=1+sum(z))
z=runif(n)*y
}


### One Response to “Bangalore workshop [ಬೆಂಗಳೂರು ಕಾರ್ಯಾಗಾರ]”

1. Dan Simpson Says:

I thought this was Nicolas Chopin’s main thrust when talking about these pseudo-marginal algorithms: unbiasedness is a consequence, but not the important thing. The expansion/re-marginalisation is the easiest way to work with these things (because just having unbiasedness isn’t enough – you’ve got to propagate the estimates forward correctly in the accept/reject step)

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