efficient exploration of multi-modal posterior distributions
The title of this recent arXival had potential appeal, however the proposal ends up being rather straightforward and hence anti-climactic! The paper by Hu, Hendry and Heng proposes to run a mixture of proposals centred at the various modes of the target for an efficient exploration. This is a correct MCMC algorithm, granted!, but the requirement to know beforehand all the modes to be explored is self-defeating, since the major issue with MCMC is about modes that are omitted from the exploration and remain undetected throughout the simulation… As provided, this is a standard MCMC algorithm with no adaptive feature and I would rather suggest our population Monte Carlo version, given the available information. Another connection with population Monte Carlo is that I think the performances would improve by Rao-Blackwellising the acceptance rate, i.e. removing the conditioning on the (ancillary) component of the index. For PMC we proved that using the mixture proposal in the ratio led to an ideally minimal variance estimate and I do not see why randomising the acceptance ratio in the current case would bring any improvement.
September 10, 2014 at 9:13 am
I wasn’t impressed either for much the same reasons; IMO the proposal is like the limiting case of autoregressive chains (Section 2.3.5) and their mixtures (also Section 2.4) described by Tierney (1994): limiting in the sense that the autoregressive part goes to zero!
http://astrostatistics.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/mixed-mcmc/
September 10, 2014 at 9:44 am
Sorry I had missed your post on this paper. We agree!
September 10, 2014 at 10:16 am
Oh, I wasn’t suggesting you should have read everything in the blogosphere as well as everything on stat.me! :-)