Scottish polls…

Hillhead Street from the Great Western Road, Glasgow westside, Apr. 20, 2012As much as I love Scotland, or because of it, I would not dream of suggesting to Scots that one side of the referendum sounds better than the other. However, I am rather annoyed at the yoyo-like reactions to the successive polls about the result, because, just like during the US elections, each poll is analysed separately rather than being pooled with the earlier ones in a reasonable meta-analysis… Where is Nate Silver when we need him?!

5 Responses to “Scottish polls…”

  1. […] their outcome is given, rather than designing them in the first place). And starting with the Scottish independence referendum of 2014. The first chapter covering the cartoon case of simple sampling from a population, with or without […]

  2. Nate Silver seems to have written off the Scottish independence referendum in August last year when he is quoted as saying “There’s virtually no chance that the ‘yes’ side will win. If you look at the polls, it’s pretty definitive really where the no side is at 60-55% and the yes side is about 40 or so.”

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-no-chance-for-yes-silver-1-3042233

    You can see the trend in the polls over the last 18months:

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-1#line

    This is just the raw data with no attempt at smoothing.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.