Scottish polls…

Hillhead Street from the Great Western Road, Glasgow westside, Apr. 20, 2012As much as I love Scotland, or because of it, I would not dream of suggesting to Scots that one side of the referendum sounds better than the other. However, I am rather annoyed at the yoyo-like reactions to the successive polls about the result, because, just like during the US elections, each poll is analysed separately rather than being pooled with the earlier ones in a reasonable meta-analysis… Where is Nate Silver when we need him?!

4 Responses to “Scottish polls…”

  1. Nate Silver seems to have written off the Scottish independence referendum in August last year when he is quoted as saying “There’s virtually no chance that the ‘yes’ side will win. If you look at the polls, it’s pretty definitive really where the no side is at 60-55% and the yes side is about 40 or so.”

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-no-chance-for-yes-silver-1-3042233

    You can see the trend in the polls over the last 18months:

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-1#line

    This is just the raw data with no attempt at smoothing.

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