the art of war
My son offered me this illustrated version of The Art of War for Xmas. (Illustrated with traditional Chinese and Japanese drawings.) And I found this citation within the fourth chapter:
Measurement owes its existence to Earth;
Estimation of quantity to Measurement;
Calculation to Estimation of quantity;
Balancing of chances to Calculation;
and Victory to Balancing of chances.
Which could somewhat be seen as an early version of Bayesian decision theory….