ABC for wargames

I recently came across an ABC paper in PLoS ONE by Xavier Rubio-Campillo applying this simulation technique to the validation of some differential equation models linking force sizes and values for both sides. The dataset is made of battle casualties separated into four periods, from pike and musket to the American Civil War. The outcome is used to compute an ABC Bayes factor but it seems this computation is highly dependent on the tolerance threshold. With highly variable numerical values. The most favoured model includes some fatigue effect about the decreasing efficiency of armies along time. While the paper somehow reminded me of a most peculiar book, I have no idea on the depth of this analysis, namely on how relevant it is to model a battle through a two-dimensional system of differential equations, given the numerous factors involved in the matter…

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