Roberto Casarin’s talk at CREST tomorrow

My former student and friend Roberto Casarin (University Ca’Foscari, Venice) will talk tomorrow at the CREST Financial Econometrics seminar on

“Bayesian Markov Switching Tensor Regression for Time-varying Networks”

Time: 10:30
Date: 14 March 2019
Place: Room 3001, ENSAE, Université Paris-Saclay

Abstract : We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multi-dimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit dynamics with time-varying parameters and apply it to multi-layer temporal networks. The original contribution is threefold. First, in order to avoid over-fitting we propose a parsimonious parameterisation of the model, based on a low-rank decomposition of the tensor of regression coefficients. Second, the parameters of the tensor model are driven by a hidden Markov chain, thus allowing for structural changes. The regimes are identified through prior constraints on the mixing probability of the zero-inflated model. Finally, we model the jointly dynamics of the network and of a set of variables of interest. We follow a Bayesian approach to inference, exploiting the Pólya-Gamma data augmentation scheme for logit models in order to provide an efficient Gibbs sampler for posterior approximation. We show the effectiveness of the sampler on simulated datasets of medium-big sizes, finally we apply the methodology to a real dataset of financial networks.

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