Following my earlier comments on Alexander Ly, Josine Verhagen, and Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, from Amsterdam, Joris Mulder, a special issue editor of the Journal of Mathematical Psychology, kindly asked me for a written discussion of that paper, discussion that I wrote last week and arXived this weekend. Besides the above comments on ToP, this discussion contains some of my usual arguments against the use of the Bayes factor as well as a short introduction to our recent proposal via mixtures. Short introduction as I had to restrain myself from reproducing the arguments in the original paper, for fear it would jeopardize its chances of getting published and, who knows?, discussed.
Archive for the Running Category
- 1 – 6 February, 2016 Learning
- 8 – 12 February, 2016 Mathématical statistics
- 15 – 19 February, 2016 Processes
- 22 – 26 February, 2016 Extremes, Copulas and Actuarial Science
- 29 February – 4 March, 2016 Bayesian statistics and algorithms
Each week will see minicourses of a few hours (2-3) and advanced talks, leaving time for interactions and collaborations. (I will give one of those minicourses on Bayesian foundations.) The scientific organisers of the B’ week are Gilles Celeux and Nicolas Chopin.
The CIRM is a wonderful meeting place, in the mountains between Marseilles and Cassis, with many trails to walk and run, and hundreds of fantastic climbing routes in the Calanques at all levels. (In February, the sea is too cold to contemplate swimming. The good side is that it is not too warm to climb and the risk of bush fire is very low!) We stayed there with Jean-Michel Marin a few years ago when preparing Bayesian Essentials. The maths and stats library is well-provided, with permanent access for quiet working sessions. This is the French version of the equally fantastic German Mathematik Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach. There will be financial support available from the supporting societies and research bodies, at least for young participants and the costs if any are low, for excellent food and excellent lodging. Definitely not a scam conference!
Another year attending La Rochambelle, the massive women-only race or walk against breast cancer in Caen, Normandy! With the fantastic vision of 20,000 runners in the same pink tee-shirt swarming down-town Caen and the arrival stadium. Which made it quite hard to spot my three relatives in the race! I also ran my fourth iteration of the 10k the next day, from the British War Cemetery of Cambes-en-Plaine to the Memorial for Peace in Caen. The conditions were not as optimal as last year, especially in terms of wind, and I lost one minute on my total time, as well as one position, the third V2 remaining tantalisingly a dozen meters in front of me till the end of the race. A mix of too light trainings, travel fatigue and psychological conviction I was going to end up fourth! Here are my split times, with a very fast start that showed up in the second half near 4mn/km, when the third V2 passed me.
Today, as I had a free day (with 24 hour daylight!) in Reykjavik before the NBBC15 conference started, thanks to the crazy schedules of the low cost sister of Air France, Transavia (!), I went in search of a hike… Which is not very difficult in Iceland! I had originally planned to stop near Geysir as the dirt road beyond Gullfoss is off-limit for rental cars. Especially small 2WD like mine.
As I was driving the first kms of the Þingvellir road, I admired the Esjan range starting with the Esja mountain that we had climbed during our previous visit to Iceland. Especially the “last” peak that glowed with a warm yellow (and apparently no snow at all). More especially, because it had a top reminding me of the Old Man of Storr on its slope. (Not that I could spot it while driving!) And quickly decided this was a great opportunity for a nice hike and a minimum of driving as I was about 20 mn from down-town Reykjavik.
I thus took a dirt road that seemed to get closer to my goal and after 500m came to a farm yard where I parked the car and went hiking, aiming at this peak, which name is Móskarðshnjúkar. Despite a big cut due to a torrent after the first hill, I managed to keep enough to high ground not to loose any altitude and sticking to the side of the ski station Skálafell (where a few people were still skiing with the noisy help of two snowmobiles), I crossed the brook easily as it was covered by snow and started moving to steeper if manageable slopes. I reached the bottom of the main peak rather quickly and then understood both its colour and the absence of snow.
As maybe visible from some of my pictures (?), the Móskarðshnjúkar peak is covered with gravel in a bright yellow stone that seems to accumulate heat very well. Climbing straight on the loose gravel was then impossible and I had to zigzag mostly up, trying to not lose too much ground to micro-avalanches. As I reached the tor I spotted two hikers above me and when I reached the top I realised there was a path coming from the west, connecting this peak with its neighbours. The normal route seems to come from a gravel road that starts close to Mount Esja, to the west, and as I followed the path down to the saddle between Móskarðshnjúkar and the rest of the range, I saw this path winding down to the valley with further hikers coming up. Before I crossed them, I went up again to the next peak, which was an easy if beautiful ridge walk, with still a fair amount of snow remaining on the north face (heavy enough to bear tracks of snowmobiles!). After following the ridge track for a while, it branched north to reach the main Esja plateau and I left the track to get down a rocky shoulder towards my starting point. However, I had forgotten about the torrent cut between the two ranges and this forced me to take a further detour. And to cross the torrent barefooted, as there was no stone ford on this off-path section. No big drama as the melted snow water was not that cold…
A last sight was provided by the final rocky outcrop, which enjoyed basaltic volcanic columns as on the picture above. A terrific hiking half-day with a sharp sunny weather and not too much wind except at the top. It was very pleasant to walk part of the way on moss and last year grass, with a surprising absence of bogs and mud when compared with Scotland.