Archive for A Treatise on Probability

someone who might benefit from increased contacts with the statistical community

Posted in Books, Statistics with tags , , , , , on July 23, 2012 by xi'an

A (kind of automated) email I got today:

Your name has come to our attention as someone who might benefit from increased contacts with the international statistical community. Given your professional interests and your statistical background (noting your publication ‘Reading Keynes’ Treatise on Probability’ in the journal International Statistical Review, volume 79, 2011), you should consider elected membership in the International Statistical Institute (ISI).

Hmmm, thanks but no thanks, I am not certain I need become a member of the ISI to increase my contacts with the international statistical community! (Disclaimer: This post makes fun of the anonymous emailing, not of the ISI!)

A seminar I will sadly miss

Posted in Books, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , on January 4, 2011 by xi'an

Next Friday, January 7, Jean Claude Saut will give a seminar in Orsay (bâtiment 425, salle 113, 13:30) on “Autour de `A Treatise on Probability’ de John Maynard Keynes  (II)”. I would have liked very much to be there and hear about a mathematician’s views on this book, which are most likely orthogonal to mines… For those in Paris this week there also is a Big’MC seminar on Thursday (IHP, 3pm) with Jean-Louis Foulley on evidence computation (in connection with Ando’s book) and Gilles Celeux (on latent blocks).

key[ed/nes] in!

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , on November 19, 2010 by xi'an

Great news in the mail today: my revision of Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability has been accepted by the International Statistical Review! With a very nice message from the editor:

It is an excellent revision and has addressed all the important points and more. I must also compliment you on your fluid and interesting writing style. It makes for very nice reading.

(In fact, this review of Keynes’ book is my first publication in this journal. This irrelevant point of information reminds me of an equally unimportant but enjoyable discussion Andrew Gelman and I had in the IHP cafeteria last year about the merits of publishing in new journals… )

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“Reading Keynes” revised

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags , on October 19, 2010 by xi'an

Over the past weeks, I have revised Reading Keynes’ Treatise on Probability and the new version is now arXived (and resubmitted). I have mostly focussed on the presentation of the Treatise within the (then) current scene and on the existing advances missed by Keynes, rather than studying the technical work on the principal averages any further. For the same reason, I also abstained from relating the book to the notion of uncertain probabilities, despite a nice suggestion by Michael Brady, as I felt this was not directly related to the statistical focus of the review.

reading Keynes [assessed]

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags , , on October 1, 2010 by xi'an

A few days ago, I got the following review of my paper on Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability, review which, while being rather negative, is quite fair.

When I looked at the title, I was expecting a paper that would be of considerable general interest. Now that I have read the paper several times, I am not quite sure what I got out of the paper. While I admire the authors goal, the paper is unfortunately not very informative.. [It] comes across as a collection of disjoint points. Even within sections, the points being made are not cohesive, and the paper does not flow smoothly. Some of this is to be expected from the nature of the paper, as one must select key points to discuss. But the organization has to be better. Also, the material following the quotes do not really embellish on the point in the quote; in fact, sometimes there is no direct connection. Take for instance the first part of Section 2, before 2.1. The quote just sits there  the material doesn’t make any connection to it. The main point of the section is in the top para on page 3 but it doesn’t do much. There is a mention on lack of analyses of data but this seems to be a throw-away sentence. Continue reading