Archive for Brittany

a journal of the plague year [grey & dry ‘nuary reviews]

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on February 27, 2021 by xi'an

Read a Danish novel Ø by Siri Ranva Hjelm Jacobsen, directly translated as island in other languages (incl. French), which was a b’day gift from my wife, a book about the longing of uprooted Faroeses for their island,  rather than about the mathematical meaning of the empty set!, and the connection between a young third generation young woman and her grand-mother’s story. Very well written, with a side entry on Faroese recent history, incl. the British occupation during WWII, just before they invaded Iceland. (And feeding my hopes to visit the Faroe in a near and brighter future!)

Cooked more (Flemmish) red and (curried) white cabbage. Moved to baking spelt bread with spelt yeast as it takes less than ten minutes of actual work!  Attempted an Ethiopian meal with key wat (beef) stew,  a vegetable version, and injera (pancakes) when I realised the teff cereal could be replaced with buckwheat, a basic staple in Breton households! But the injera tasted and looked more like a galette, so this was not the real thing… Nonetheless a nice family meal.Watched the second instalment of The Hundred-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, The 101-Year-Old Man Who Skipped Out on the Bill and Disappeared, which is the straight continuation of the former if not as funny. (And not directly linked to the books.)

Read Time of Contempt, second volume in the Witcher’s novels. Not particularly impressive, with a lot of infodump chitchat, an almost absent Yennefer, a (thankfully short-lived) threat of the return of the magicians’ boarding school!, a gratuitous (?) visit by the Wild Hunt myth, some Star War inspired monster, an incomprehensible and highly predictable coup on the magicians’ council, and a teenage gang (in a Mark Lawrence rewriting Lord of the Flies spirit!), an inexplicable collapse of the balance of powers between the kingdoms. And I found the rendering of the rape scene at the end of the book most disturbing…

poor statistics

Posted in Books, pictures, R, Statistics, Travel, Wines with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 24, 2019 by xi'an

I came over the weekend across this graph and the associated news that the county of Saint-Nazaire, on the southern border of Brittany, had a significantly higher rate of cancers than the Loire countries. The complete study written by Solenne Delacour, Anne Cowppli-Bony, amd Florence Molinié, is quite cautious about the reasons for this higher rate, even using a Bayesian Poisson-Gamma smoothing (and the R package empbaysmooth), and citing the 1991 paper by Besag, York and Mollié, but the local and national medias are quick to blame the local industries for the difference. The graph above is particularly bad in that it accumulates mortality causes that are not mutually exclusive or independent. For instance, the much higher mortality rate due to alcohol is obviously responsible for higher rates of most other entries. And indicates a sociological pattern that may or may not be due to the type of job in the area, but differs from the more rural other parts of the Loire countries. (Which, like Brittany, are already significantly above (50%) the national reference for alcohol related health issues.), and may not be strongly connected to exposition to chemicals. For instance, the rates of pulmonary cancers are mostly comparable to the national average, if higher than the rest of the Loire countries and connect with a high smoking propensity. Lymphomas are not significantly different from the regional reference. The only type of cancer that can be directly attributed to working conditions are the mesothelioma, mostly caused by asbestos exposure, which was used in ship building, a specialty of the area. Among the many possible reasons for the higher mortality of the county, the study mentions a lower exposure to medical testings (connected with the sociological composition of the area). Which would indicate the most effective policies for lowering these higher cancer and mortality rates.

indecent exposure

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 27, 2018 by xi'an

While attending my last session at MCqMC 2018, in Rennes, before taking a train back to Paris, I was confronted by this radical opinion upon our previous work with Matt Moores (Warwick) and other coauthors from QUT, where the speaker, Maksym Byshkin from Lugano, defended a new approach for maximum likelihood estimation using novel MCMC methods. Based on the point fixe equation characterising maximum likelihood estimators for exponential families, when theoretical and empirical moments of the natural statistic are equal. Using a Markov chain with stationary distribution the said exponential family, the fixed point equation can be turned into a zero divergence equation, requiring simulation of pseudo-data from the model, which depends on the unknown parameter. Breaking this circular argument, the authors note that simulating pseudo-data that reproduce the observed value of the sufficient statistic is enough. Which is related with Geyer and Thomson (1992) famous paper about Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation. From there I was and remain lost as I cannot see why a derivative of the expected divergence with respect to the parameter θ can be computed when this divergence is found by Monte Carlo rather than exhaustive enumeration. And later used in a stochastic gradient move on the parameter θ… Especially when the null divergence is imposed on the parameter. In any case, the final slide shows an application to a large image and an Ising model, solving the problem (?) in 140 seconds and suggesting indecency, when our much slower approach is intended to produce a complete posterior simulation in this context.

Rennes street art [#3]

Posted in pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , on July 24, 2018 by xi'an

unusual clouds [jatp]

Posted in pictures, Travel, Wines with tags , , , , , , , , , , on July 19, 2018 by xi'an