Another great day of talks and discussions at BIRS! Continuing on the themes of the workshop between delving into the further validation of those approximation techniques and the devising of ever more approximate solutions for ever more complex problems. Among the points that came clearer to me through discussion, a realisation that the synthetic likelihood perspective is not that far away from our assumptions in the consistency paper. And that a logistic version of the approach can be constructed as well. A notion I had not met before (or have forgotten I had met) is the one of early rejection ABC, which should actually be investigated more thoroughly as it should bring considerable improvement in computing time (with the caveats of calibrating the acceptance step before producing the learning sample and of characterising the output). Both Jukka Corander and Ewan Cameron reminded us of the case of models that take minutes or hours to produce one single dataset. (In his talk on some challenging applications, Jukka Corander chose to move from socks to boots!) And Jean-Michel Marin produced an illuminating if sobering experiment on the lack of proper Bayesian coverage by ABC solutions. (It appears that Ewan’s video includes a long empty moment when we went out for the traditional group photo, missing the end of his talk.)
Archive for Canadian Rockies
My daughter sort of dragged me to watch The Revenant as it just came out in French cinemas and I reluctantly agreed as I had read about magnificent winter and mountain sceneries, shot in an unusually wide format with real light. And indeed the landscape and background of the entire movie are magnificent, mostly shot in the Canadian Rockies, around Kananaskis and Canmore, which is on the way to Banff. (Plus a bit in Squamish rain forest.) The story is however quite a disappointment as it piles up one suspension of disbelief after another. This is a tale of survival (as I presume everyone knows!) but so implausible as to cancel any appreciation of the film. It may be the director Iñárritu is more interested in a sort of new age symbolism than realism, since there are many oniric passages with floating characters and falling meteors, desecrated churches and pyramids of bones, while the soundtrack often brings in surreal sounds, but the impossible survival of Hugh Glass made me focus more and more on the scenery… While the true Hugh Glass did manage to survive on his own, fixing his broken leg, scrawling to a river, and making a raft that brought him to a fort downstream, [warning, potential spoilers ahead!] the central character in the movie takes it to a fantasy level as he escapes hypothermia while swimming in freezing rapids, drowning while wearing a brand new bearskin, toxocariasis while eating raw liver, bullets when fleeing from both Araka Indians and French (from France, Louisiana, or Québec???) trappers, a 30 meter fall from a cliff with not enough snow at the bottom to make a dent on, subzero temperatures while sleeping inside a horse carcass [and getting out of it next morning when it should be frozen solid], massive festering bone-deep wounds, and the deadly Midwestern winter… Not to mention the ability of make fire out of nothing in the worst possible weather conditions or to fire arrows killing men on the spot or to keep a never ending reserve of bullets. And while I am at it, the ability to understand others: I had trouble even with the French speaking characters, despite their rather modern French accent!
Alas, thrice alas, the bid we made right after the Banff workshop with Scott Schmidler, and Steve Scott for holding the next World ISBA Conference in 2016 in Banff, Canada was unsuccessful. This is a sad and unforeseen item of news as we thought Banff had a heap of enticing features as a dream location for the next meeting… Although I cannot reveal the location of the winner, I can mention it is much more traditional (in the sense of the Valencia meetings), i.e. much more mare than monti… Since it is in addition organised by friends and in a country I love, I do not feel particularly aggravated. Especially when considering we will not have to organise anything then!
Scott Schmidler, Steve Scott and myself just submitted a proposal for holding the next World ISBA Conference in 2016 in Banff, Canada! After enjoying the superb environment of the Advanced in Scalable Bayesian computation workshop last week, we thought it would be worth a try as a potential location for the next meeting, esp. when considering the superlative infrastructure of the Banff Centre (meaning we really do not have to be local to be local organisers!), the very reasonable rates for renting the site and securing two hundred rooms, the potential for a special collaboration with BIRS, the scarcity of alternative proposals (as far as I can fathom) and the ultimate mountain environment… I remember fondly the IMS annual meeting of 2002 there, with a great special lecture by Hans Künsch and, exceptionally, an RSS Read Paper by Steve Brooks, Paulo Guidici and Gareth Roberts. (Not mentioning en exhilarating solo scramble up Mount Temple and another one with Arnaud Guillin up the chimneys of Mount Edith!) Since the deadline was this Saturday, March 15, we should hear pretty soon if we are successful in this bid. (Good luck to our Scottish friends from Edinburgh for their bid for holding ISBA 2018! Moving from the feet of Mount Rundle [above] to the feet of Arthur’s Seat would make for a great transition.)