Archive for Colorado
fat tire [jatp]
Posted in Statistics with tags amber beer, Belgian beer, Colorado, delivery vans, Fat Tire, jatp, microbrewery, New Belgium, New York city, NYC, street view on January 20, 2023 by xi'an
Voodoo Ranger IPA
Posted in pictures, Travel, Wines with tags Colorado, Denver, JSM 2019, US beer, Voodoo Ranger IPA on December 20, 2022 by xi'an
a problem that did not need ABC in the end
Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, Travel with tags ABC, Approximate Bayesian computation, Colorado, cross validated, dawn, Denver, high rise, introductory opening lecture, jatp, JSM 2019, law of the hammer, multinomial distribution, predictive on August 8, 2019 by xi'an
While in Denver, at JSM, I came across [across validated!] this primarily challenging problem of finding the posterior of the 10³ long probability vector of a Multinomial M(10⁶,p) when only observing the range of a realisation of M(10⁶,p). This sounded challenging because the distribution of the pair (min,max) is not available in closed form. (Although this allowed me to find a paper on the topic by the late Shanti Gupta, who was chair at Purdue University when I visited 32 years ago…) This seemed to call for ABC (especially since I was about to give an introductory lecture on the topic!, law of the hammer…), but the simulation of datasets compatible with the extreme values of both minimum and maximum, m=80 and M=12000, proved difficult when using a uniform Dirichlet prior on the probability vector, since these extremes called for both small and large values of the probabilities. However, I later realised that the problem could be brought down to a Multinomial with only three categories and the observation (m,M,n-m-M), leading to an obvious Dirichlet posterior and a predictive for the remaining 10³-2 realisations.
Denver snapshot [jatp]
Posted in pictures, Travel, Wines with tags ÌPA, beer, Belgian beer, Colorado, Denver, Fat Tyre, jatp, JSM 2019, USA, Voodoo Ranger IPA on July 28, 2019 by xi'an
Introductory overview lecture: the ABC of ABC [JSM19 #1]
Posted in Statistics with tags ABC, American Statistical Association, Approximate Bayesian computation, approximate Bayesian inference, causal inference, Colorado, Denver, evidence, forensic statistics, Joint Statistical Meeting, JSM 2019, lecture on July 28, 2019 by xi'an
Here are my slides [more or less] for the introductory overview lecture I am giving today at JSM 2019, 4:00-5:50, CC-Four Seasons I. There is obviously quite an overlap with earlier courses I gave on the topic, although I refrained here from mentioning any specific application (like population genetics) to focus on statistical and computational aspects.
Along with the other introductory overview lectures in this edition of JSM:
- Sunday 28, 2:00-3:50, CC-Four Seasons I: CSI at the JSM: Forensic Statistics and the Value of Scientific Evidence in Court by Hal Stern (University of California, Irvine)
- Monday 29, 8:30-10:20, CC-205: Assessing Procedures vs. Assessing Evidence by Michael Levine (University of Massachusetts, Amherst)
- Monday 29, 2:00_3:50, CC-205: Causal inference in modern statistics by Jennifer Hill (New York University)and Avi Feller (UC Berkeley)
- Tuesday 30, 8:30-10:20, CC-205: Modern Risk Analysis by Walter Piergorsch (University of Arizona) and David Banks (Duke University)
Xi'an's Og 