**H**adley Wickham from RStudio has won the 2019 COPSS Award, which expresses a rather radical switch from the traditional recipient of this award in that this recognises his many contributions to the R language and in particular to RStudio. The full quote for the nomination is his “influential work in statistical computing, visualisation, graphics, and data analysis” including “making statistical thinking and computing accessible to a large audience”. With the last part possibly a recognition of the appeal of Open Source… (I was not in Denver for the awards ceremony, having left after the ABC session on Monday morning. Unfortunately, this session only attracted a few souls, due to the competition of twentysome other sessions, including, *excusez du peu!*, David Dunson’s Medallion Lecture and Michael Lavine’s IOL on the likelihood principle. And Marco Ferreira’s short-course on Bayesian time series. This is the way the joint meeting goes, but it is disappointing to reach so few people.)

## Archive for COPSS Award

## R wins COPSS Award!

Posted in Statistics with tags Bayesian time series analysis, COPSS Award, Denver, IMS Medallion, JSM 2019, Likelihood Principle, open source, R, RStudio on August 4, 2019 by xi'an## JSM 2018 [#4]

Posted in Mountains, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags British Columbia, Canada, COPSS Award, Denver, Elisabeth L. Scott Award, finite mixtures, Jeffreys prior, JSM 2018, location-scale parameterisation, objective Bayes, prior selection, R.A. Fisher Award, reparameterisation, Vancouver, \end{frame} on August 3, 2018 by xi'an**A**s last ½ day of sessions at JSM2018 in an almost deserted conference centre, with a first session set together by Mario Peruggia and a second on Advances in Bayesian Nonparametric Modeling and Computation for Complex Data. Here are the slides of my talk this morning in the Bayesian mixture estimation session.

which I updated last night (Slideshare most absurdly does not let you update versions!)

Since I missed the COPSS Award ceremony for a barbecue with friends on Locarno Beach, I only discovered this morning that the winner this year is Richard Samworth, from Cambridge University, who eminently deserves this recognition, if only because of his contributions to journal editing, as I can attest from my years with JRSS B. Congrats to him as well as to Bin Yu and Susan Murphy for their E.L. Scott and R.A. Fisher Awards! I also found out from an email to JSM participants that the next edition is in Denver, Colorado, which I visited only once in 1993 on a trip to Fort Collins visiting Kerrie Mengersen and Richard Tweedie. Given the proximity to the Rockies, I am thinking of submitting an invited session on ABC issues, which were not particularly well covered by this edition of JSM. (Feel free to contact me if you are interested in joining the session.)

## JSM 2018 [#3]

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags British Columbia, Canada, COPSS Award, curse of dimensionality, Grouse Mountain, HMC, JSM 2018, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Vancouver, waterplane on August 2, 2018 by xi'an**T**hird day at JSM2018 and the audience is already much smaller than the previous days! Although it is hard to tell with a humongous conference centre spread between two buildings. And not getting hooked by the tantalising view of the bay, with waterplanes taking off every few minutes…

Still, there were (too) few participants in the two computational statistics (MCMC) sessions I attended in the morning, the first one being organised by James Flegal on different assessments of MCMC convergence. (Although this small audience made the session quite homely!) In his own talk, James developed an interesting version of multivariate ESS that he related with a stopping rule for minimal precision. Vivek Roy also spoke about a multiple importance sampling construction I missed when it came upon on arXiv last May.

In the second session, Mylène Bédard exposed the construction of and improvement brought by local scaling in MALA, with 20% gain from using non-local tuning. Making me idle muse over whether block sizes in block-Gibbs sampling could also be locally optimised… Then Aaron Smith discussed how HMC should be scaled for optimal performances, under rather idealised conditions and very high dimensions. Mentioning a running time of d, the dimension, to the power ¼. But not addressing the practical question of calibrating scale versus number of steps in the discretised version. (At which time my hands were [sort of] frozen solid thanks to the absurd air conditioning in the conference centre and I had to get out!)

## distributions for parameters [seminar]

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags Bayesian paradigm, BFF4, Canada, CANSSI, confidence distribution, COPSS Award, fiducial inference, foundations, frequentist inference, Nancy Reid, National Academy of Science, seminar, Université Paris Dauphine, University of Toronto on January 22, 2018 by xi'an**N**ext Thursday, January 25, Nancy Reid will give a seminar in Paris-Dauphine on distributions for parameters that covers different statistical paradigms and bring a new light on the foundations of statistics. (Coffee is at 10am in the Maths department common room and the talk is at 10:15 in room A, second floor.)

Nancy Reid is University Professor of Statistical Sciences and the Canada Research Chair in Statistical Theory and Applications at the University of Toronto and internationally acclaimed statistician, as well as a 2014 Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada. In 2015, she received the Order of Canada, was elected a foreign associate of the National Academy of Sciences in 2016 and has been awarded many other prestigious statistical and science honours, including the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) Award in 1992.

Nancy Reid’s research focuses on finding more accurate and efficient methods to deduce and conclude facts from complex data sets to ultimately help scientists find specific solutions to specific problems.

There is currently some renewed interest in developing distributions for parameters, often without relying on prior probability measures. Several approaches have been proposed and discussed in the literature and in a series of “Bayes, fiducial, and frequentist” workshops and meeting sessions. Confidence distributions, generalized fiducial inference, inferential models, belief functions, are some of the terms associated with these approaches. I will survey some of this work, with particular emphasis on common elements and calibration properties. I will try to situate the discussion in the context of the current explosion of interest in big data and data science.

## Nobel prize in statistics???

Posted in Kids, Statistics, University life with tags ASA, COPSS Award, Fields medal, IMS, Nobel Prize on January 4, 2014 by xi'an**X**iao-Li Meng asked this question in his latest XL column, to which Andrew replied faster than I. And in the same mood as mine. I had taken part to a recent discussion on this topic within the IMS Council, namely whether or not the IMS should associate with other organisations like ASA towards funding and supporting this potential prize. My initial reaction was one of surprise that we could consider mimicking/hijacking the Nobel for our field. First, I dislike the whole spirit of most prizes, from the personalisation to the media frenzy and distortion, to the notion that we could rank discoveries and research careers within a whole field. And separate what is clearly due to a single individual from what is due to a team of researchers.

**B**eing clueless about those fields, I will not get into a discussion of who should have gotten a Nobel Prize in medicine, physics, or chemistry. And who should not have. But there are certainly many worthy competitors to the actual winners. And this is not the point: I do not see how any of this fights the downfall of scientific students in most of the Western World. That is, how a teenager can get more enticed to undertake maths or physics studies because she saw a couple old guys wearing weird clothes getting a medal and a check in Sweden. I have no actual data, but could Xiao-Li give me a quantitative assessment of the fact that Nobel Prizes “attract future talent”? Chemistry departments keep closing for lack of a sufficient number of students, (pure) maths and physics departments threatened with the same fate… Even the Fields Medal, which has at least the appeal of being delivered to younger researchers, does not seem to fit Xiao-Li’s argument. (To take a specific example: The recent Fields medallist Cédric Villani is a great communicator and took advantage of his medal to promote maths throughout France, in conferences, the medias, and by launching all kinds of initiative. I still remain sceptical about the overall impact on recruiting young blood in maths programs [again with no data to back up my feeling).) I will even less mention Nobel prizes for literature and peace, as there clearly is a political agenda in the nomination. (And selecting Sartre for the Nobel prize for literature definitely discredited it. At least for me.)

“…the media and public have given much more attention to the Fields Medal than to the COPSS Award, even though the former has hardly been about direct or even indirect impact on everyday life.” XL

**W**ell, I do not see this other point of Xiao-Li’s. Nobel prizes are not prestigious for their impact on society, as most people do not understand at all what the rewarded research (career) is about. The most extreme example is the *Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel*: On the one hand, Xiao-Li is right in pointing out that this is a very successful post-Alfred creation of a “Nobel Prize”. On the other hand, the fact that some years see two competing theories simultaneously win leads me to consider that this prize gives priority to theoretical construct above any impact on the World’s economy. Obviously, this statement is a bit of shooting our field in the foot since the only statisticians who got a Nobel Prize are econometricians and game-theorists! Nonetheless, it also shows that the happy few statisticians who entered the Nobel Olympus did not bring a bonus to the field… I am thus remaining my usual pessimistic self on the impact of a *whatever-company Prize in Statistical Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel*.

**A**nother remark is the opposition between the COPSS Award, which remains completely ignored by the media (despite a wealth of great nominees with various domains of achievements) and the Fields Medal (which is not ignored). This has been a curse of Statistics that has been discussed at large, namely the difficulty to separate what is math and what is outside math within the field. The Fields Medal is clearly very unlikely to nominate a statistician, even a highly theoretical statistician, as there will always be “sexier” maths results, i.e. corpora of work that will be seen as higher maths than, say, the invention of the Lasso or the creation of generalized linear models. So there is no hope to reach for an alternative Fields Medal with the same shine. Just like the Nobel Prize.

**O**ther issues I could have mentioned, but for the length of the current rant, are the creation of rewards for solving a specific problem (as some found in Machine Learning), for involving multidisciplinary and multicountry research teams, and for reaching new orders of magnitude in processing large data problems.