**A**mong the many papers published in this special issue of TAS on statistical significance or lack thereof, there is a paper I had already read before (besides ours!), namely the paper by Jonty Rougier (U of Bristol, hence the picture) on connecting p-values, likelihood ratio, and Bayes factors. Jonty starts from the notion that the p-value is induced by a transform, summary, statistic of the sample, t(x), the larger this t(x), the less likely the null hypothesis, with density f⁰(x), to create an embedding model by exponential tilting, namely the exponential family with dominating measure f⁰, and natural statistic, t(x), and a positive parameter θ. In this embedding model, a Bayes factor can be derived from any prior on θ and the p-value satisfies an interesting double inequality, namely that it is less than the likelihood ratio, itself lower than any (other) Bayes factor. One novel aspect from my perspective is that I had thought up to now that this inequality only holds for one-dimensional problems, but there is no constraint here on the dimension of the data x. A remark I presumably made to Jonty on the first version of the paper is that the p-value itself remains invariant under a bijective increasing transform of the summary t(.). This means that there exists an infinity of such embedding families and that the bound remains true over all such families, although the value of this minimum is beyond my reach (could it be the p-value itself?!). This point is also clear in the justification of the analysis thanks to the Pitman-Koopman lemma. Another remark is that the perspective can be inverted in a more realistic setting when a genuine alternative model M¹ is considered and a genuine likelihood ratio is available. In that case the Bayes factor remains smaller than the likelihood ratio, itself larger than the p-value induced by the likelihood ratio statistic. Or its log. The induced embedded exponential tilting is then a geometric mixture of the null and of the locally optimal member of the alternative. I wonder if there is a parameterisation of this likelihood ratio into a p-value that would turn it into a uniform variate (under the null). Presumably not. While the approach remains firmly entrenched within the realm of p-values and Bayes factors, this exploration of a natural embedding of the original p-value is definitely worth mentioning in a class on the topic! (One typo though, namely that the Bayes factor is mentioned to be lower than one, which is incorrect.)

## Archive for embedded models

## p-values, Bayes factors, and sufficiency

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics with tags Bayes factors, Bristol, embedded models, exponential tilting, p-values, Pitman-Koopman theorem, statistical significance, sufficiency, The American Statistician, University of Bristol on April 15, 2019 by xi'an## O’Bayes 2015 [day #2]

Posted in pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life, Wines with tags ABC, computer experiment model, embedded models, false discovery rate, Susie Bayarri, València, Verema on June 4, 2015 by xi'an**T**his morning was the most special time of the conference in that we celebrated Susie Bayarri‘s contributions and life together with members of her family. Jim gave a great introduction that went over Susie’s numerous papers and the impact they had in Statistics and outside Statistics. As well as her recognised (and unsurprising if you knew her) expertise in wine and food! The three talks in that morning were covering some of the domains within Susie’s fundamental contributions and delivered by former students of her: model assessment through various types of predictive p-values by Maria Eugenia Castellanos, Bayesian model selection by Anabel Forte, and computer models by Rui Paulo, all talks that translated quite accurately the extent of Susie’s contributions… In a very nice initiative, the organisers had also set a wine tasting break (at 10am!) around two vintages that Susie had reviewed in the past years [with reviews to show up soon in the Wines section of the ‘Og!]

The talks of the afternoon session were by Jean-Bernard (JB) Salomond about a new proposal to handle embedded hypotheses in a non-parametric framework and by James Scott about false discovery rates for neuroimaging. Despite the severe theoretical framework behind the proposal, JB managed a superb presentation that mostly focussed on the intuition for using the smoothed (or approximative) version of the null hypothesis. (A flavour of ABC, somehow?!) Also kudos to JB for perpetuating my tradition of starting sections with unrelated pictures. James’ topic was more practical Bayes or pragmatic Bayes than objective Bayes in that he analysed a large fMRI experiment on spatial working memory, introducing a spatial pattern that led to a complex penalised Lasso-like optimisation. The data was actually an fMRI of the brain of Russell Poldrack, one of James’ coauthors on that paper.

The (sole) poster session was on the evening with a diverse range of exciting topics—including three where I was a co-author, by Clara Grazian, Kaniav Kamary, and Kerrie Mengersen—but it was alas too short or I was alas too slow to complete the tour before it ended! In retrospect we could have broken it into two sessions since Wednesday evening is a free evening.

## projective covariate selection

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags Aki Vehtari, Bayesian lasso, Dan Simpson, embedded models, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, horseshoe prior, Kullback-Leibler divergence, MCMC, Norway, NUTS, predictive power, prior projection, STAN, variable selection, zero measure set on October 28, 2014 by xi'an**W**hile I was in Warwick, Dan Simpson [newly arrived from Norway on a postdoc position] mentioned to me he had attended a talk by Aki Vehtari in Norway where my early work with Jérôme Dupuis on projective priors was used. He gave me the link to this paper by Peltola, Havulinna, Salomaa and Vehtari that indeed refers to the idea that a prior on a given Euclidean space defines priors by projections on all subspaces, despite the zero measure of all those subspaces. (This notion first appeared in a joint paper with my friend Costas Goutis, who alas died in a diving accident a few months later.) The projection further allowed for a simple expression of the Kullback-Leibler deviance between the corresponding models and for a Pythagorean theorem on the additivity of the deviances between embedded models. The weakest spot of this approach of ours was, in my opinion and unsurprisingly, about deciding when a submodel was too far from the full model. The lack of explanatory power introduced therein had no absolute scale and later discussions led me to think that the bound should depend on the sample size to ensure consistency. (The recent paper by Nott and Leng that was expanding on this projection has now appeared in CSDA.)

“Specifically, the models with subsets of covariates are found by maximizing the similarity of their predictions to this reference as proposed by Dupuis and Robert [12]. Notably, this approach does not require specifying priors for the submodels and one can instead focus on building a good reference model. Dupuis and Robert (2003) suggest choosing the size of the covariate subset based on an acceptable loss of explanatory power compared to the reference model. We examine using cross-validation based estimates of predictive performance as an alternative.” T. Peltola et al.

The paper also connects with the Bayesian Lasso literature, concluding on the horseshoe prior being more informative than the Laplace prior. It applies the selection approach to identify biomarkers with predictive performances in a study of diabetic patients. The authors rank model according to their (log) predictive density at the observed data, using cross-validation to avoid exploiting the data twice. On the MCMC front, the paper implements the NUTS version of HMC with STAN.