Archive for England

additional deaths in England & Wales

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on August 5, 2020 by xi'an

Source: United Kingdom Office for National Statistics

David Spiegelhalter wrote another piece for The Guardian about the number of COVID-related deaths in Britain, remarking that with the objective statistic of excess death, the kingdom is doing worse than any other country, including Belgium which is reported as the worst performer in the fight again the pandemic based on its reported COVID death numbers. David also shows the proper degree of caution in providing reasons for this terrible record rather than starting the blame game. One factor differentiating England from other countries like Italy being the spread of its COVID clusters, partly due to the higher mobility of the population, in particular its travelling for vacations. (The comparison also reveals a stable higher level of overall mortality in the UK when compared with south-west EU countries, except Portugal. It surprisingly misses Germany, which is unlikely to be a country with missing statistics!)

MCqMC 2020 live and free and online

Posted in pictures, R, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 27, 2020 by xi'an

The MCqMC 20202 conference that was supposed to take place in Oxford next 9-14 August has been turned into an on-line free conference since travelling remains a challenge for most of us. Tutorials and plenaries will be live with questions  on Zoom, with live-streaming and recorded copies on YouTube. They will probably be during 14:00-17:00 UK time (GMT+1),  15:00-18:00 CET (GMT+2), and 9:00-12:00 ET. (Which will prove a wee bit of a challenge for West Coast and most of Asia and Australasia researchers, which is why our One World IMS-Bernoulli conference we asked plenary speakers to duplicate their talks.) All other talks will be pre-recorded by contributors and uploaded to a website, with an online Q&A discussion section for each. As a reminder here are the tutorials and plenaries:

Invited plenary speakers:

Aguêmon Yves Atchadé (Boston University)
Jing Dong (Columbia University)
Pierre L’Écuyer (Université de Montréal)
Mark Jerrum (Queen Mary University London)
Peter Kritzer (RICAM Linz)
Thomas Muller (NVIDIA)
David Pfau (Google DeepMind)
Claudia Schillings (University of Mannheim)
Mario Ullrich (JKU Linz)

Tutorials:

Fred Hickernell (IIT) — Software for Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods
Aretha Teckentrup (Edinburgh) — Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Bansky in the loo

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , , on April 26, 2020 by xi'an

in Bristol for the day

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on February 28, 2020 by xi'an

I am in Bristol for the day, giving a seminar at the Department of Statistics where I had not been for quite a while (and not since the Department has moved to a beautifully renovated building). The talk is on ABC-Gibbs, whose revision is on the verge of being resubmitted. (I also hope Greta will let me board my plane tonight…)

a little hatred [book review]

Posted in Books, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , on February 2, 2020 by xi'an

While the last books of Joe Abercrombie [I read] were not as exhilarating as the earliest ones, this first volume of a new trilogy brings back memories of the excitement of reading a radically new form of fantasy. Of realistic fantasy if both terms can be twinned together!

“Why folk insisted on singing about great warriors all the time, Rikke couldn’t have said. Why not sing about really good fishermen, or bakers, or roofers, or some other folk who actually left the world a better place, rather than heaping up corpses and setting fire to things?”

A little hatred (an obvious understatement!) takes place one to two generations later than the First Law trilogy. Meaning that the anti-heroes from the previous books have by now either died (a fairly common occurrence in Abercrombie’s universe) or aged a lot (more uncommon, except for magii—whose role is rather unclear in this story) and lost in influence for most of them. The new central characters are thus children or grand-children of these ancient characters as the clannish and feudal power structures of this universe do not allow for much social upheaval, except when workers unite and turn Luddites! The society has indeed evolved towards a sort of industrial revolution with landowners expelling farmers and turning them (as well as former soldiers) into cheap labour for emerging factories, just as in the historical England of the 19th Century… The rebellion of the workers in one of the factory towns is the main event of A little hatred and Abercrombie’s description of the event is fantastic (and ghastly). Much more than the millionth battle between the North and the Union, which ends up in a macho duel. And shows the clear superiority of female characters in that story.  I thus hope the sequel will keep up with this renewed creativity of the author!