Archive for falsehood flies and truth comes limping after it

5 ways to fix statistics?!

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , on December 4, 2017 by xi'an

In the last issue of Nature (Nov 30), the comment section contains a series of opinions on the reproducibility crisis, by five [groups of] statisticians. Including Blakeley McShane and Andrew Gelman with whom [and others] I wrote a response to the seventy author manifesto. The collection of comments is introduced with the curious sentence

“The problem is not our maths, but ourselves.”

Which I find problematic as (a) the problem is never with the maths, but possibly with the stats!, and (b) the problem stands in inadequate assumptions on the validity of “the” statistical model and on ignoring the resulting epistemic uncertainty. Jeff Leek‘s suggestion to improve the interface with users seems to come short on that level, while David Colquhoun‘s Bayesian balance between p-values and false-positive only address well-specified models. Michèle Nuitjen strikes closer to my perspective by arguing that rigorous rules are unlikely to help, due to the plethora of possible post-data modellings. And Steven Goodman’s putting the blame on the lack of statistical training of scientists (who “only want enough knowledge to run the statistical software that allows them to get their paper out quickly”) is wishful thinking: every scientific study [i.e., the overwhelming majority] involving data cannot involve a statistical expert and every paper involving data analysis cannot be reviewed by a statistical expert. I thus cannot but repeat the conclusion of Blakeley and Andrew:

“A crucial step is to move beyond the alchemy of binary statements about ‘an effect’ or ‘no effect’ with only a P value dividing them. Instead, researchers must accept uncertainty and embrace variation under different circumstances.”

Trump lies

Posted in pictures with tags , , , , , on June 25, 2017 by xi'an

“Trump achieved something remarkable: He said something untrue, in public, every day for the first 40 days of his presidency.” David Leonhardt

Today, I spotted in the NYT this interactive catalogue of lies uttered publicly by Trump since he became President.

11 million French voters voted for the far-right candidate

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Travel, University life with tags , , , , on May 8, 2017 by xi'an