## learning optimal summary statistics

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , on July 27, 2022 by xi'an

Despite the pursuit of the holy grail of sufficient statistics, most applications will have to settle for the weakest concept of optimal statistics.”Quiz #1: How does Bayes sufficiency [which preserves the posterior density] differ from sufficiency [which preserves the likelihood function]?

Quiz #2: How does Fisher-information sufficiency [which preserves the information matrix] differ from standard sufficiency [which preserves the likelihood function]?

Read a recent arXival by Till Hoffmann and Jukka-Pekka Onnela that I frankly found most puzzling… Maybe due to the Norman train where I was traveling being particularly noisy.

The argument in the paper is to find a summary statistic that minimises the [empirical] expected posterior entropy, which equivalently means minimising the expected Kullback-Leibler distance to the full posterior.  And maximizing the mutual information between parameters θ and summaries t(.). And maximizing the expected surprise. Which obviously requires breaking the sample into iid components and hence considering the gain brought by a specific transform of a single observation. The paper also contains a long comparison with other criteria for choosing summaries.

“Minimizing the posterior entropy would discard the sufficient statistic t such that the posterior is equal to the prior–we have not learned anything from the data.”

Furthermore, the expected aspect of the criterion takes us away from a proper Bayes analysis (and exhibits artifacts as the one above), which somehow makes me question the relevance of comparing entropies under different distributions. It took me a long while to realise that the collection of summaries was set by the user and quite limited. Like a neural network representation of the posterior mean. And the intractable posterior is further approximated by a closed-form function of the parameter θ and of the summary t(.). Using there a neural density estimator. Or a mixture density network.

## information loss from the median

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics with tags , , , , , , on April 19, 2022 by xi'an

An interesting side item from a X validated question about calculating the Fisher information for the Normal median (as an estimator of the mean). While this information is not available in closed form, it has a “nice” expression

$1+n\mathbb E[Z_{n/2:n}\varphi(Z_{n/2:n})]-n\mathbb E[Z_{n/2:n-1}\varphi(Z_{n/2:n-1})]+$
$\frac{n(n-1)}{n/2-2}\varphi(Z_{n/2-2:n-2})^2+\frac{n(n-1)}{n-n/2-1}\varphi(Z_{n/2:n-2})^2$

which can easily be approximated by simulation (much faster than by estimating the variance of said median). This shows that the median is about 1.57 less informative than the empirical mean. Bonus points for computing the information brought by the MAD statistic! (The information loss against the MLE is 2.69,  since the Monte Carlo ratio of their variances is 0.37.)

## 21w5107 [day 1]

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on November 30, 2021 by xi'an

The workshop started by the bad news of our friend Michele Guindani being hit and mugged upon arrival in Oaxaca, Saturday night. Fortunately, he was not hurt, but lost both phone and wallet, always a major bummer when abroad… Still this did not cast a lasting pall on the gathering of long-time no-see friends, whom I had indeed not seen for at least two years. Except for those who came to the CIRMirror!

A few hours later, we got woken up by fairly loud firecrackers (palomas? cohetes?) at 5am, for no reason I can fathom (the Mexican Revolution day was a week ago) although it seemed correlated with the nearby church bells going on at full blast (for Lauds? Hanukkah? Cyber Monday? Chirac’s birthdate?). The above picture was taken the Santa María del Tule town with its super-massive Montezuma cypress tree, with remaining decorations from the Día de los Muertos.

Without launching (much) the debate on whether or not Bayesian non-parametrics qualified as “objective Bayesian” methods, Igor Prünster started the day with a non-parametric presentation of dependent random probability measures. With the always fascinating notion that a random discrete non-parametric prior is inducing a distribution on the partitions (EPPF). And applicability in mixtures and their generalisations. Realising that the highly discrete nature of such measures is not such an issue for a given sample size n, since there are at most n elements in the partition. Beatrice Franzolini discussed of specific ways to create dependent distributions based on independent samples, although her practical example based on one N(-10,1) sample and another (independently) N(10,1) sample seemed to fit in several of the dependent random measures she compared. And Marta Catalano (Warwick) presented her work on partial exchangeability and optimal transportation (which I had also heard in CIRM last June and in Warwick last week). One thing I had not realised earlier was the dependence of the Wasserstein distance on the parameterisation, although it now makes perfect sense. If only for the coupling.  I had alas to miss Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos’ talk as I had to teach my undergrad class in Paris Dauphine at the same time… This non-parametric session was quite homogeneous and rich in perspectives.

In an all-MCMC afternoon, Julyan Arbel talked about reference priors for extreme value distributions, with the “shocking” case of a restriction on the support of one parameter, ξ. Which means in fact that the Jeffreys prior is then undefined. This reminded me somewhat of the work of Clara Grazian on Jeffreys priors for mixtures, where some models were not allowing for Fisher information to exist. The second part of this talk was about modified local versions of Gelman & Rubin (1992) R hats. And the recent modification proposed by Aki and co-authors. Where I thought that a simplification of the multivariate challenge of defining ranks could be alleviated by considering directly the likelihood values of the chains. And Trevor Campbell gradually built an involved parallel tempering method where the powers of a geometric mixture are optimised as spline functions of the temperature. Next, María Gil-Leyva presented her original and ordered approach to mixture estimation, which I discussed in a blog published two days ago (!). She corrected my impressions that (i) the methods were all impervious to label switching and (ii) required some conjugacy to operate. The final talk of the day was by Anirban Bhattacharya on high-D Bayesian regression and coupling techniques for checking convergence, a paper that had been on my reading list for a long while. A very elaborate construct of coupling strategies within a Gibbs sampler, with some steps relying on optimal coupling and others on the use of common random generators.

## Easy computation of the Bayes Factor

Posted in Books, Statistics with tags , , , , , on August 21, 2021 by xi'an

“Choosing the ranges has been criticized as introducing subjectivity; however, the key point is that the ranges are given quantitatively and should be justified”

On arXiv, I came across a paper by physicists Dunstan, Crowne, and Drew, on computing the Bayes factor by linear regression. Paper that I found rather hard to read given that the method is never completely spelled out but rather described through some examples (or the captions of figures)… The magical formula (for the marginal likelihood)

$B=(2\pi)^{n/2}L_{\max}\dfrac{\text{Cov}_p}{\prod_{i=1}^n \Delta p_i}$

where n is the parameter dimension, Cov is the Fisher information matrix, and the denominator the volume of a flat prior on an hypercube (!), seems to come for a Laplace approximation. But it depends rather crucially (!) on the choice of this volume. A severe drawback the authors evacuate with the above quote… And by using an example where the parameters have a similar meaning under both models. The following ones compare several dimensions of parameters without justifying (enough) the support of the corresponding priors. In addition, using a flat prior over the hypercube seems to clash with the existence of a (Fisher) correlation between the components. (To be completely open as to why I discuss this paper, I was asked to review the paper, which I declined.)

## Fisher’s lost information

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics, Travel with tags , , , , , , , on February 11, 2019 by xi'an

After a post on X validated and a good discussion at work, I came to the conclusion [after many years of sweeping the puzzle under the carpet] that the (a?) Fisher information obtained for the Uniform distribution U(0,θ) as θ⁻¹ is meaningless. Indeed, there are many arguments:

1. The lack of derivability of the indicator function for x=θ is a non-issue since the derivative is defined almost everywhere.
2. In many textbooks, the Fisher information θ⁻² is derived from the Fréchet-Darmois-Cramèr-Rao inequality, which does not apply for the Uniform U(0,θ) distribution.
3. One connected argument for the expression of the Fisher information as the expectation of the squared score is that it is the variance of the score, since its expectation is zero. Except that it is not zero for the Uniform U(0,θ) distribution.
4. For the same reason, the opposite of the second derivative of the log-likelihood is not equal to the expectation of the squared score. It is actually -θ⁻²!
5. Looking at the Taylor expansion justification of the (observed) Fisher information, expanding the log-likelihood around the maximum likelihood estimator does not work since the maximum likelihood estimator does not cancel the score.
6. When computing the Fisher information for an n-sample rather than a 1-sample, the information is n²θ⁻², rather than nθ⁻².
7. Since the speed of convergence of the maximum likelihood estimator is of order n⁻², the central limit theorem does not apply and the limiting variance of the maximum likelihood estimator is not the Fisher information.