Archive for French elections

ABC postdoc in Olso

Posted in Kids, Mountains, pictures, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on April 26, 2017 by xi'an

Jukka Corander sent me the announcement that he is opening a 3 year postdoctoral position at the University of Oslo, to work with him and his team on ABC projects. This sounds quite an exciting offer, plus gives the nominee the opportunity to live in the most enjoyable city of Oslo for several years in fairly comfy conditions! The deadline is May 31. (If I was at a stage of my career where applying made sense, I would definitely candidate. Not even waiting for the outcome of the French elections on May 7!)

ne rien lâcher

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , on April 25, 2017 by xi'an

today, 7.7 millions French voters voted for a xenophobic, populist, leader of an extreme-right party

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , on April 24, 2017 by xi'an

“In short, the French presidential election is a mess”

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , on April 23, 2017 by xi'an

Harry Enten (and not Nate Silver as reported by Le Monde) published yesterday a post on Five-Thirty-Eight about the unpredictability of the French elections. Which essentially states the obvious, namely that the four major candidates all stand a chance to make it to the runoff. (The post classifies Macron as a former left-wing socialist, which shows a glaring misunderstanding of the candidate or a massive divergence of what left-wing means between France and the USA.) The tribune states both that the polls could exhibit a bigger mistake than in the previous elections and that Le Pen score is unlikely to be underestimated, because voters are no longer shy to acknowledge they vote for a fascist candidate. One argument for the error in the polls is attributed to pollsters “herding” their results, i.e., shrinking the raw figures towards the global average taken over previous polls. A [rather reasonable] correction dismissed by Le Monde and French pollsters. While Enten argues that the variability of the percentages over fifty polls is too small to be plausible, assuming a Normal distribution that may not hold because French pollsters use quotas to build their polling population. In any case, this analysis, while cautious and reasonably so!, does not elaborate on the largest question mark, the elephant in the room, namely the percentage of abstentions today and their distribution among the political spectrum, which may eventually make the difference tonight. Indeed, “the bottom line is that we don’t know what’s going to happen on Sunday.” And it is definitely frightening!

tactical vote against extreme right Le Pen

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , on April 23, 2017 by xi'an

Today is the first round of the French presidential elections, which readers could guess were coming from the flurry of anti-Le Pen posts in the past weeks. While I am not particularly close to any candidate’s program and find the flow of unrealistic promises that keeps coming as The Day comes closer both embarrassing and pathetic, or maybe because of this, I decided to vote in a minimax manner, trying to minimise the maximum damage, i.e., casting a vote for the candidate the most likely to stop Le Pen and her xenophobic and economically nonsensical programme if she reaches the second round of the election. As it seems likely she will. This means voting for Emmanuel Macron, who stands at the centre of the political spectrum, is fairly liberal on societal issues may be the most pro-European of all candidates, and managed to gather  a wide range of supports. And will stand a fair chance to win the second round if he reaches it, contrary to the radical Mélanchon. Everything being chaotic about this election, this remains a big if until tonight… Go vote, if you can!

chateau l’insoumise [not a political message]

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , on April 20, 2017 by xi'an

Nobel Prizes against le Pen!

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on April 19, 2017 by xi'an

“Certains d’entre nous, lauréats du prix Nobel d’économie, ont été cités par des candidats à l’élection présidentielle française, notamment par Marine Le Pen et ses équipes, pour ­justifier un programme politique sur la question de l’Europe. Les signataires de cette lettre ont des po­sitions différentes sur les sujets complexes que sont l’union monétaire et les politiques de ­relance. ­Cependant, nos opinions convergent pour condamner cette instrumentalisation de la pensée économique dans le cadre de la campagne électorale française.

– La construction européenne est capitale non seulement pour maintenir la paix sur le continent mais également pour le progrès économique des Etats membres et leur pouvoir politique dans le monde.

– Les évolutions proposées par les programmes antieuropéens déstabiliseraient la France et re­mettraient en cause la coopération entre pays européens, qui assure aujourd’hui une stabilité économique et politique en Europe.

– Les politiques isolationnistes et protectionnistes et les dévaluations compétitives, toutes menées au détriment des autres pays, sont de dangereux moyens d’essayer de générer de la croissance. Elles entraînent des mesures de représailles et des guerres commerciales. Au final, elles se révéleront préjudiciables à la France ainsi qu’à ses partenaires commerciaux.

– Quand ils sont bien intégrés au marché du travail, les migrants peuvent être une opportunité économique pour le pays d’accueil. Plusieurs des pays les plus prospères au monde ont su accueillir et intégrer les émigrés.

– Il y a une grande différence entre choisir de ne pas rejoindre l’euro en premier lieu et en sortir après l’avoir adopté.

– Il faut renouveler les engagements de justice sociale, et ainsi garantir et développer l’équité et la protection sociale, en accord avec les valeurs traditionnelles de la France, de liberté, d’égalité et de fraternité. Mais l’on peut et l’on doit parvenir à cette protection sociale sans protectionnisme économique.

– Alors que l’Europe et le monde font face à des épreuves sans précédent, il faut plus de solidarité, pas moins. Les problèmes sont trop sérieux pour être confiés à des politiciens clivants.”

Angus Deaton (Princeton, prix Nobel en 2015), Peter Diamond (MIT, 2010), Robert Engle (NYU, 2003), Eugene Fama (Chicago, 2013), Lars Hansen (Chicago, 2013), Oliver Hart (Harvard, 2016), Bengt Holmström (MIT, 2016), Daniel Kahneman (Princeton, 2002), Finn Kydland (CMU, 2004), Eric Maskin (Harvard, 2007), Daniel McFadden (Berkeley, 2000), James Mirrlees (Cambridge, 1996), Robert Mundell (Columbia, 1999), Roger Myerson (Chicago, 2007), Edmund Phelps (Columbia, 2005), Chris Pissarides (LSE, 2010), Alvin Roth (Stanford, 2012), Amartya Sen (Harvard, 1998), William Sharpe (Stanford, 1990), Robert Shiller (Yale, 2013), Christopher Sims (Princeton, 2011), Robert Solow (Columbia, 1987), Michael Spence (Stanford, 2001), Joseph Stiglitz (Columbia, 2001), Jean Tirole (Toulouse School of Economics, 2014)