## shelled and riddled

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, R, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , on August 10, 2022 by xi'an

Consider a shell game with three shells and a ball with The Riddler constraint that the location of the shell with the ball is always exchanged with the location of an empty shell, randomly chosen. If one starts with the ball as rightmost, what is the distribution of the location of the ball after N steps?

Running an exploratory R code like

```o=rep(0,3)
for(n in 1:1e6){
b=c(0,0,1)
for(t in 1:N){
i=sample((1:3)[!b],1);b=0*b;b[i]=1}
o=o+b}
```

shows that the difference in probability is between the rightmost position and both others, starting at zero, and evolving as p⁺=(1-p⁻)/2, with the successive values 0,1/2,1/4,3/8,5/15,11/32,… Very quickly converging to 1/3.

## Bayes on the Beach

Posted in pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , on April 3, 2019 by xi'an

This year, the now traditional Bayes on the Beach conference will take place in Surfers Paradise (Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia) on 25th – 27th November. The conference provides a forum for discussion on developments and applications of Bayesian statistics, and includes keynote presentations, tutorials, practical problem-based workshops, invited oral presentations, and poster presentations. The keynote speakers are Nial Friel, Renate Meyer, Antonietta Mira, and Sudipto Banerjee, Registration is open.

## lazy ABC…what?!

Posted in Kids, pictures, Statistics with tags , , , , , on November 8, 2017 by xi'an

## positions at QUT stats

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , on September 4, 2017 by xi'an

Chris Drovandi sent me the information that the Statistics GroupQUT, Brisbane, is advertising for three positions:

This is a great opportunity, a very active group, and a great location, which I visited several times, so if interested apply before October 1.

## Bayes on the beach [and no bogus!]

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , on July 27, 2016 by xi'an

Bayes on the Beach is a yearly conference taking place in Queensland Gold Coast and organised by Kerrie Mengersen and her BRAG research group at QUT. To quote from the email I just received, the conference will be held at the Mantra Legends Hotel on Surfers Paradise, Gold Coast during November 7 – 9, 2016. The conference provides a forum for discussion on developments and applications of Bayesian statistics, and includes keynote presentations, tutorials, practical problem-based workshops, invited oral presentations, and poster presentations. Abstract submissions are now open until September 2.