Archive for H1N1

Influenza predictions

Posted in Statistics with tags , , on July 1, 2009 by xi'an

Following yesterday’s [rather idle] post, Alessandra Iacobucci pointed out the sites of Research on Complex Systems at Northwestern and of GLEaM at Indiana University that propose projections on the epidemic. I have not had time so far to check for details on those projections (my talk for this morning session is not yet completed!).

I would have liked to see those maps in terms of chances of catching the flu rather than sheer numbers as they represent population sizes as much as the prevalence of the flu. The rudimentary division of the number of predicted cases by the population size would be a first step.

Influenza, anywhere?!

Posted in Statistics, Travel, Uncategorized with tags , , , on June 30, 2009 by xi'an

Everyone should take everyday preventive actions to stop the spread of germs, including frequent hand washing and people who are sick should stay home and avoid contact with others in order to limit further spread of the disease [CDC Public Guidance].

As I am getting ready to take my plane for the 3rd Rimini Bayesian workshop mentioned on that post (no, I haven’t yet changed my slides!), I am [rather idly] wondering why we do not hear more about the H1N1 pandemic. Checking on the site of the World Health Organisation (WHO) shows a widespread repartition of the flu since most countries are hit (I spotted Haiti and most of Africa missing from the list, but this may be due to a lack of proper reporting rather than no case so far).

Novel influenza A (H1N1) activity is now being detected through CDC’s routine influenza surveillance systems and reported weekly in FluView [CDC Surveillance].

While I see the point in not panicking people by adopting extreme measures like those taken in Mexico (too late) during the first weeks of the outbreak, it seems to me that nothing is done at the moment, at least as perceived through my everyday life. I do not see people wearing masks when they cough, washing hands more regularly and so on… It sounds like the [maximum] Phase 6 level announced by the WHO has no visible impact. Is it because the disease actually has less impact than previously thought? Mais que fait la police?!