## Archive for IMS

## plenary talks at JSM 2017 in Baltimore

Posted in Statistics with tags Abraham Wald, Baltimore, Bernstein-von Mises theorem, Emmanuel Candés, IMS, IMS Medallion, JSM 2017, Judith Rousseau, Mark Girolami, Maryland, probabilistic numerics on May 25, 2017 by xi'an## Elsevier in the frontline

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags Annals of Mathematics, Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, arXiv, boycott, Elsevier, impact factor, IMS, Nature, New Zealand, predatory publishing, Sci-Hub, Series B, Statistics Surveys, Timothy Gower on January 27, 2017 by xi'an

“Viewed this way, the logo represents, in classical symbolism, the symbiotic relationship between publisher and scholar. The addition of theNon Solusinscription reinforces the message that publishers, like the elm tree, are needed to provide sturdy support for scholars, just as surely as scholars, the vine, are needed to produce fruit. Publishers and scholars cannot do it alone. They need each other. This remains as apt a representation of the relationship between Elsevier and its authors today – neither dependent, nor independent, but interdependent.”

**T**here were two items of news related with the publishark Elsevier in the latest issue of Nature I read. One was that Germany, Peru, and Taiwan had no longer access to Elsevier journals, after negotiations or funding stopped. Meaning the scientists there have to find alternative ways to procure the papers, from the authors’ webpage [I do not get why authors fail to provide their papers through their publication webpage!] to peer-to-peer platforms like Sci-Hub. Beyond this short term solution, I hope this pushes for the development of arXiv-based journals, like Gower’s Discrete Analysis. Actually, we [statisticians] should start planing a Statistics version of it!

The second item is about Elsevier developing its own impact factor index, CiteScore. While I do not deem the competition any more relevant for assessing research “worth”, seeing a publishark developing its own metrics sounds about as appropriate as Breithart News starting an ethical index for fake news. I checked the assessment of Series B on that platform, which returns the journal as ranking third, with the surprising inclusion of the Annual Review of Statistics and its Application [sic], a review journal that only started two years ago, of Annals of Mathematics, which does not seem to pertain to the category of *Statistics, Probability, and Uncertainty*, and of Statistics Surveys, an IMS review journal that started in 2009 (of which I was blissfully unaware). And the article in Nature points out that, “*scientists at the Eigenfactor project, a research group at the University of Washington, published a preliminary calculation finding that Elsevier’s portfolio of journals gains a 25% boost relative to others if CiteScore is used instead of the JIF*“. Not particularly surprising, eh?!

When looking for an illustration of this post, I came upon the hilarious quote given at the top: I particularly enjoy the newspeak reversal between the tree and the vine, the parasite publishark becoming the support and the academics the (invasive) vine… Just brilliant! (As a last note, the same issue of Nature mentions New Zealand aiming at getting rid of all invasive predators: I wonder if publishing predators are also included!)

## David Cox gets the first International Prize in Statistics

Posted in pictures, Statistics, University life with tags Cox Model, David Cox, IMS, International Prize in Statistics, Nobel Prize, Nuffield College, proportional hazards model, survival analysis, University of Oxford on October 20, 2016 by xi'an**J**ust received an email from the IMS that Sir David Cox (Nuffield College, Oxford) has been awarded the International Prize in Statistics. As discussed earlier on the ‘Og, this prize is intended to act as the equivalent of a Nobel prize for statistics. While I still have reservations about the concept. I have none whatsoever about the nomination as David would have been my suggestion from the start. Congratulations to him for the Prize and more significantly for his massive contributions to statistics, with foundational, methodological and societal impacts! [As Peter Diggle, President of the Royal Statistical Society just pointed out, it is quite fitting that it happens on European Statistics day!]

## ABC in Sydney, July 3-4, 2014!!!

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life, Wines with tags ABC, ABC in London, ABC in Paris, ABC in Rome, abc-in-sydney, Australia, Cancún, IMS, ISBA, simulation, Sydney, Sydney Harbour, Sydney Opera, UNSW, workshop on February 12, 2014 by xi'an**A**fter ABC in Paris in 2009, ABC in London in 2011, and ABC in Roma last year, things are accelerating since there will be—as I just learned— an ABC in Sydney next July ** (not June as I originally typed, thanks Robin!)**. The workshop on the current developments of ABC methodology thus leaves Europe to go down-under and to take advantage of the IMS Meeting in Sydney on July 7-10, 2014. Hopefully, “ABC in…” will continue its tour of European capitals in 2015! To keep up with an unbroken sequence of free workshops, Scott Sisson has managed to find support so that attendance is free of charge

*(free as in “no registration fee at all”!)*but

**. While I would love to visit UNSW and Sydney once again and attend the workshop, I will not, getting ready for Cancún and our ABC short course there.**

*you do need to register as space is limited*## Nobel prize in statistics???

Posted in Kids, Statistics, University life with tags ASA, COPSS Award, Fields medal, IMS, Nobel Prize on January 4, 2014 by xi'an**X**iao-Li Meng asked this question in his latest XL column, to which Andrew replied faster than I. And in the same mood as mine. I had taken part to a recent discussion on this topic within the IMS Council, namely whether or not the IMS should associate with other organisations like ASA towards funding and supporting this potential prize. My initial reaction was one of surprise that we could consider mimicking/hijacking the Nobel for our field. First, I dislike the whole spirit of most prizes, from the personalisation to the media frenzy and distortion, to the notion that we could rank discoveries and research careers within a whole field. And separate what is clearly due to a single individual from what is due to a team of researchers.

**B**eing clueless about those fields, I will not get into a discussion of who should have gotten a Nobel Prize in medicine, physics, or chemistry. And who should not have. But there are certainly many worthy competitors to the actual winners. And this is not the point: I do not see how any of this fights the downfall of scientific students in most of the Western World. That is, how a teenager can get more enticed to undertake maths or physics studies because she saw a couple old guys wearing weird clothes getting a medal and a check in Sweden. I have no actual data, but could Xiao-Li give me a quantitative assessment of the fact that Nobel Prizes “attract future talent”? Chemistry departments keep closing for lack of a sufficient number of students, (pure) maths and physics departments threatened with the same fate… Even the Fields Medal, which has at least the appeal of being delivered to younger researchers, does not seem to fit Xiao-Li’s argument. (To take a specific example: The recent Fields medallist Cédric Villani is a great communicator and took advantage of his medal to promote maths throughout France, in conferences, the medias, and by launching all kinds of initiative. I still remain sceptical about the overall impact on recruiting young blood in maths programs [again with no data to back up my feeling).) I will even less mention Nobel prizes for literature and peace, as there clearly is a political agenda in the nomination. (And selecting Sartre for the Nobel prize for literature definitely discredited it. At least for me.)

“…the media and public have given much more attention to the Fields Medal than to the COPSS Award, even though the former has hardly been about direct or even indirect impact on everyday life.” XL

**W**ell, I do not see this other point of Xiao-Li’s. Nobel prizes are not prestigious for their impact on society, as most people do not understand at all what the rewarded research (career) is about. The most extreme example is the *Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel*: On the one hand, Xiao-Li is right in pointing out that this is a very successful post-Alfred creation of a “Nobel Prize”. On the other hand, the fact that some years see two competing theories simultaneously win leads me to consider that this prize gives priority to theoretical construct above any impact on the World’s economy. Obviously, this statement is a bit of shooting our field in the foot since the only statisticians who got a Nobel Prize are econometricians and game-theorists! Nonetheless, it also shows that the happy few statisticians who entered the Nobel Olympus did not bring a bonus to the field… I am thus remaining my usual pessimistic self on the impact of a *whatever-company Prize in Statistical Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel*.

**A**nother remark is the opposition between the COPSS Award, which remains completely ignored by the media (despite a wealth of great nominees with various domains of achievements) and the Fields Medal (which is not ignored). This has been a curse of Statistics that has been discussed at large, namely the difficulty to separate what is math and what is outside math within the field. The Fields Medal is clearly very unlikely to nominate a statistician, even a highly theoretical statistician, as there will always be “sexier” maths results, i.e. corpora of work that will be seen as higher maths than, say, the invention of the Lasso or the creation of generalized linear models. So there is no hope to reach for an alternative Fields Medal with the same shine. Just like the Nobel Prize.

**O**ther issues I could have mentioned, but for the length of the current rant, are the creation of rewards for solving a specific problem (as some found in Machine Learning), for involving multidisciplinary and multicountry research teams, and for reaching new orders of magnitude in processing large data problems.

## MCMSki IV, Jan. 6-8, 2014, Chamonix (news #15)

Posted in Mountains, R, Statistics, University life with tags Chamonix, France, IMS, ISBA conference, MCMC, MCMSki IV, Mont Blanc, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, posters, simulation, ski, snow on December 26, 2013 by xi'an**T**he programs of the talks, posters and workshop are now printed and available on Speaker Deck (talks, posters, workshop). Please let me know if you spot anything wrong (even though it will not be reprinted!). This is presumably the last news item till Jan. 5 as I am almost off to Chamonix for a week of ~~hard work preparing the conference~~ happily skiing with my family, looking forward seeing some participants in the coming week in the streets of Chamonix and all of them/you on Monday, Jan. 6, 8:30! (Snow is falling right now, so there should be no issue with finding open runs…)

## JSM2014, Boston

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags ABC, Boston, IMS, JSM 2014, model selection, random forests, SNPs, summary statistics on December 3, 2013 by xi'an**I** submitted my abstract for JSM2014, just in time! Thanks to Veronika Rockova, now at The Wharton School, for organising this IMS session on *Advances in Model Selection* (Wednesday, 8/6/2014, 8:30)!

itle: |
Automated variable selection for ABC algorithms |

Abstract: |
We discuss here recent advances made in the selection of summaries for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). In particular, we emphasize the appeal of using machine learning tools such as random forests to build in an automated version summary statistics of a minimum dimension. Conditional to sufficient progress being made in this direction, we will also discuss why and how ABC methods have to be adapted when analyzing large molecular datasets and will present some progress concerning Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data. |

Key words: |
Bayesian computation, ABC, SNP, model selection |