Archive for ISBA 2014

To Susie [by Kerrie Mengersen]

Posted in pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , on August 21, 2014 by xi'an

[Here is a poem written by my friend Kerrie for the last ISBA cabaret in Cancun, to Susie who could not make it to a Valencia meeting for the first time… Along with a picture of Susie, Alicia and Jennifer taking part in another ISBA cabaret in Knossos, Crete, in 2000.]

This is a parody of a classic Australian bush poem, ‘The Man from Snowy River’, that talks of an amazing horseman in the rugged mountain bush of Australia, who out-performed the ‘cracks’ and became a legend. That’s how I think of Susie, so this very bad poem comes with a big thanks for being such an inspiration, a great colleague and a good friend.

There was movement in the stats world as the emails caught alight
For the cult from Reverend Bayes had got away
And had joined the ‘ISBA’ forces, and were calling for a fight
So all the cracks had gathered to the fray.

All the noted statisticians from the countries near and far
Had flown into Cancun overnight
For the Bayesians love their meetings where the sandy beaches are
And the Fishers snuffed the battle with delight.

There were Jim and Ed and Robert, who were ‘fathers of the Bayes’
They were known as the whiskey drinking crowd
But they’d invented all the theory in those Valencia days
Yes, they were smart, but oh boy were they loud!

And Jose M Bernardo came down to lend a hand
A finer Bayesian never wrote a prior
And Mike West, Duke of Bayesians, also joined the band
And brought down all the graduates he could hire

Sonia and Maria strapped their laptops to the cause
And Anto, Chris and Peter ran – in thongs!
Sirs Adrian and David came with armour and a horse
While Brad and Gareth murdered battle songs

And one was there, a Spaniard, blonde and fierce and proud
With a passion for statistics and for fun
She’d been there with the founders of the nouveau Bayesian crowd
And kept those Fisher stats folk on the run

But Jim’s subjective prior made him doubt her power to fight
Mike Goldstein said, ‘That girl will never do,
In the heat of battle, deary, you just don’t have the might
This stoush will be too rough for such as you.’

 But Berger and Bernardo came to Susie’s side
We think we ought to let her in, they said
For we warrant she’ll be with us when the blood has fairly dried
For Susie is Valencia born and bred.

She did her Bayesian training in the classic Spanish way
Where the stats is twice as hard and twice as rough
And she knows nonparametrics, which is useful in a fray
She’s soft outside, but inside, man she’s tough!

She went. They found those Fisher stats folk sunning on the beach
And as they grabbed their laptops from the sand
Jim Berger muttered fiercely, ‘right, twist any head you reach
We cannot let those Fish get out of hand.’

Alicia, grab a Dirichlet and break them with a stick
Chris, it’s easy, just like ABC
And Sylvia, a mixture model ought to do the trick
But just you leave that Ronnie up to me.

Jose battled them with inference and curdled Neyman’s blood
And Ed told jokes that made them shake their head
And posteriors lined like beaches like sandbags for a flood
And Jim threw whiskey bottles as they fled.

And when the Bayesians and the Fishers were washed up on the sand
The fight was almost judged to be a tie
But it was Susie who kept going, who led the final charge
For she didn’t want objective Bayes to die

She sent the beach on fire as she galloped through the fray
Hurling P and F tests through the foam
‘til the Fishers raised surrender and called the fight a day
And shut their laptops down and sailed for home.

And now at ISBA meetings where the Bayesians spend their days
To laugh and learn and share a drink or two
A glass is always toasted: to Susie, Queen of Bayes
And the cheering echoes loudly round the crew.

She will be remembered for setting Bayesian stats on fire
For her contributions to the field are long
And her passion and her laughter will continue to inspire
The Bayesian from Valencia lives on!

Off from Cancun [los scientificos Maya]

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , on July 22, 2014 by xi'an

Maya1The flight back from ISBA 2014 was not as smooth as the flight in: it took one hour for the shuttle to take us to the airport thanks to a driver posing as a touristic guide [who needs a guide when going home?!] and droning on and on about Cancún and the Maya heritage [as far as I could guess from his Spanish]. Learning at the airport that out flight to Mexico City was delayed, then too delayed for us to make the connection, with no hotel room available there, then suggesting to the desk personal every possible European city to learn the flight had left or was about to leave, missing London by an hair, thanks to our droning friend on the scientific Mayas, and eventually being bused to the hotel airport, too far from the last poster session we could have attended!, and leaving early the next morning to Atlanta and then Paris. Which means we could have stayed for most of the remaining sessions and been back home at about the same time…
Maya2

Cancun, ISBA 2014 [½ day #2]

Posted in pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 19, 2014 by xi'an

Cancun12

Half-day #2 indeed at ISBA 2014, as the Wednesday afternoon kept to the Valencia tradition of free time, and potential cultural excursions, so there were only talks in the morning. And still the core poster session at (late) night. In which my student Kaniav Kamari presented a poster on a current project we are running with Kerrie Mengersen and Judith Rousseau on the replacement of the standard Bayesian testing setting with a mixture representation. Being half-asleep by the time the session started, I did not stay long enough to collect data on the reactions to this proposal, but the paper should be arXived pretty soon. And Kate Lee gave a poster on our importance sampler for evidence approximation in mixtures (soon to be revised!). There was also an interesting poster about reparameterisation towards higher efficiency of MCMC algorithms, intersecting with my long-going interest in the matter, although I cannot find a mention of it in the abstracts. And I had a nice talk with Eduardo Gutierrez-Pena about infering on credible intervals through loss functions. There were also a couple of appealing posters on g-priors. Except I was sleepwalking by the time I spotted them… (My conference sleeping pattern does not work that well for ISBA meetings! Thankfully, both next editions will be in Europe.)

Great talk by Steve McEachern that linked to our ABC work on Bayesian model choice with insufficient statistics, arguing towards robustification of Bayesian inference by only using summary statistics. Despite this being “against the hubris of Bayes”… Obviously, the talk just gave a flavour of Steve’s perspective on that topic and I hope I can read more to see how we agree (or not!) on this notion of using insufficient summaries to conduct inference rather than trying to model “the whole world”, given the mistrust we must preserve about models and likelihoods. And another great talk by Ioanna Manolopoulou on another of my pet topics, capture-recapture, although she phrased it as a partly identified model (as in Kline’s talk yesterday). This related with capture-recapture in that when estimating a capture-recapture model with covariates, sampling and inference are biased as well. I appreciated particularly the use of BART to analyse the bias in the modelling. And the talk provided a nice counterpoint to the rather pessimistic approach of Kline’s.

Terrific plenary sessions as well, from Wilke’s spatio-temporal models (in the spirit of his superb book with Noel Cressie) to Igor Prunster’s great entry on Gibbs process priors. With the highly significant conclusion that those processes are best suited for (in the sense that they are only consistent for) discrete support distributions. Alternatives are to be used for continuous support distributions, the special case of a Dirichlet prior constituting a sort of unique counter-example. Quite an inspiring talk (even though I had a few micro-naps throughout it!).

I shared my afternoon free time between discussing the next O’Bayes meeting (2015 is getting very close!) with friends from the Objective Bayes section, getting a quick look at the Museo Maya de Cancún (terrific building!), and getting some work done (thanks to the lack of wireless…)

Cancun sunrise

Posted in pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , on July 15, 2014 by xi'an

Cancun2

arrived in Cancún

Posted in Kids, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , on July 14, 2014 by xi'an

Mexico1After an uneventful trip from Paris, we landed to the heat and humidity just a day before our ABC course. Much too hot and too humid for my taste, so I am looking forward spending my days in the conference centre. Hopefully, it will get cool enough to go running in the early morning…

Mexico6

Most unfortunately, when trying to get a taste of the water last night, I almost immediately lost my prescription glasses to a big wave and am forced to move around the conference wearing sunglasses…. or looking lost and not recognizing anyone! What a bummer!

ABC in Cancún

Posted in Books, Kids, R, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on July 11, 2014 by xi'an

abcpestouHere are our slides for the ABC [very] short course Jean-Michel and I give at ISBA 2014 in Cancún next Monday (if your browser can manage Slideshare…) Although I may switch the pictures from Iceland to Mexico, on Sunday, there will be not much change on those slides we both have previously used in previous short courses. (With a few extra slides borrowed from Richard Wilkinson’s tutorial at NIPS 2013!) Jean-Michel will focus his share of the course on software implementations, from R packages like abc and abctools and our population genetics software DIYABC. With an illustration on SNPs data from pygmies populations.

 

Cancun, register before Feb. 15!

Posted in Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , on February 10, 2014 by xi'an

Early bird registration for the ISBA 2014 World Meeting in Cancún, México, ends up on Feb. 14. Since the fees are already astronomical ($410 for ISBA students and $510 for other ISBA members), it is definitely worth to register now. (As debated in an earlier post, I am opposed to the steep inflation in conference fees and do not buy the argument of the all-included package. This is certainly most convenient for the conference organisers or treasurers, but I do not want to pay for meals I will not enjoy [and in some cases not even take]. Especially when the cost is multiplied by 5 since four of my PhD students will travel to Cancún as well. Whoever is building a proposal for ISBA 2016, please bear that in mind! As we will when making our proposal for ISBA 2018 in Edinburgh.)