significant changepoint? [poor statistics]

A rather short-shighted item of news in Libération on road deaths rising in March 2021 for the first time since the beginning of lockdown in March 2020. The increase is by 22 persons, which is arguably not statistically significant (although terribly significant for the victims and their families) and somehow to be expected when considering the figures are averages over 12 months, hence representing the new volume of driving induced by the lockdown measures like work-at-home, closed schools, cancelled winter vacations. At best the following figures should see a plateau. More globally, this huge dip in the number of deaths, bringing us back to the 1920’s figures!,  is to be celebrated, alas with no prospect that this lower rate will resist a return to higher levels of activity.

oops…!

Drogue : sortir du tout-répressif [reposted]

[Here is an editorial (my take at a Google translation) from Le Monde about the installment last week of a fixed fine of €200 for drug possession. Introduced in 2018 by the French Parliament, it is presented by the French government as a way to fight drug-trafficking (and its far reaching consequences in the (de)structuration of some suburbs) by turning consumers into de facto accomplices. Which I find counterproductive and irrational as prohibition never works and ultimately benefits criminals. Drug legalisation or at least drug decriminalisation, adopted in many other countries, would be much more beneficial. Disclaimer #1: I am not supporting the use of drugs, except tea of course. Disclaimer #2: I do not agree with the entirety of the editorial below.]

100ième victime

Notre Drame