Archive for Manhattan

major confUSion

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , on November 19, 2016 by xi'an

crossing the Seine in RER C near Maison de la Radio, Nov. 09, 2012In a recent evening talk-show on France Inter, the French national public radio, the debate was about the [bad] surprise election of the donald and the fact that the media had missed the result, (self-)blaming a disconnection with the “real” country. One of the discussants, Julia Cagé, Professor of Economics at Science Po’, started the discussion with the amazing confusion [at 5’55”] between the probability that Hillary Clinton would win [evaluated at 84% on the last day] and the percentage of votes in her favour [which was around that figure in Manhattan]…

On a related if minor theme, my post on Flaxman et al.’s early [if preliminary] analysis of the said election got so many views that it became the most popular post for 2016! (If not competing with Ross Ihaka’s call to simply start over with R!)

And yet another related entry today in Libération, blaming the disastrous result partly on the social media and their algorithms (again!) that favour items of information (or dis-information) from the same perspective and do not rank those items by their reliability… The author of the tribune is an econometrician at Essec, but there is no methodological content in this ideological entry that seems to call for a super-monitor which would impose (how?) diversity and (which?) ranking on social media. A post-truth era, for sure! Shifting the blame from the deplorable voters themselves to anything else…

back from New York

Posted in Kids, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , on April 5, 2015 by xi'an

ColumbiaA greatly enjoyable [if a wee bit tight] visit to Columbia University for my  seminar last Monday! (And a reasonably smooth trip if I forget about the screaming kids on both planes…!) Besides discussing with several faculty on our respective research interests, and explaining our views on replacing Bayes factors and posterior probabilities, views that were not strongly challenged by the seminar audience, maybe because it sounded too Bayesiano-Bayesian!, I had a great time catching up (well, almost!) with Andrew, running for one hour by the river both mornings, and even biking—does not feel worse than downtown Paris!—with Andrew a few miles to a terrific tiny Mexican restaurant in South Bronx, El Atoradero where I had a home-made tortilla (or pupusa) filled bexmexwith beans and covered with hot chorizo! (The restaurant was selected as the 2014 best Mexican restaurant in New York City by The Village Voice, whatever that means. And also has a very supportive review in The New York Times.) It was so good I (very exceptionally) ordered a second serving of spicy pork huarache, which was almost as good. And kept me well-fed till the next day, when I arrived in Paris. And with enough calories to fight the cold melted snow that fell when biking back to the office at Columbia. I also had an interesting morning in a common room at Columbia, working next to graduate students and hearing their conversations about homeworks and advisors (nothing to gossip about as their comments were invariably laudatory!, maybe because they suspected me of being a mole!)