Archive for maximum entropy

AABI9 tidbits [& misbits]

Posted in Books, Mountains, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on December 10, 2019 by xi'an

Today’s Advances in Approximate Bayesian Inference symposium, organised by Thang Bui, Adji Bousso Dieng, Dawen Liang, Francisco Ruiz, and Cheng Zhang, took place in front of Vancouver Harbour (and the tentalising ski slope at the back) and saw more than 400 participants, drifting away from the earlier versions which had a stronger dose of ABC and much fewer participants. There were students’ talks in a fair proportion, as well (and a massive number of posters). As of below, I took some notes during some of the talks with no pretense at exhaustivity, objectivity or accuracy. (This is a blog post, remember?!) Overall I found the day exciting (to the point I did not suffer at all from the usal naps consecutive to very short nights!) and engaging, with a lot of notions and methods I had never heard about. (Which shows how much I know nothing!)

The first talk was by Michalis Titsias, Gradient-based Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (jointly with Petros Dellaportas) involving as its objective function the multiplication of the variance of the move and of the acceptance probability, with a proposed adaptive version merging gradients, variational Bayes, neurons, and two levels of calibration parameters. The method advocates using this construction in a burnin phase rather than continuously, hence does not require advanced Markov tools for convergence assessment. (I found myself less excited by adaptation than earlier, maybe because it seems like switching one convergence problem for another, with additional design choices to be made.)The second talk was by Jakub Swiatkowsk, The k-tied Normal Distribution: A Compact Parameterization of Gaussian Mean Field Posteriors in Bayesian Neural Networks, involving mean field approximation in variational inference (loads of VI at this symposium!), meaning de facto searching for a MAP estimator, and reminding me of older factor analysis and other analyse de données projection methods, except it also involved neural networks (what else at NeurIPS?!)The third talk was by Michael Gutmann, Robust Optimisation Monte Carlo, (OMC) for implicit data generated models (Diggle & Graton, 1982), an ABC talk at last!, using a formalisation through the functional representation of the generative process and involving derivatives of the summary statistic against parameter, in that sense, with the (Bayesian) random nature of the parameter sample only induced by the (frequentist) randomness in the generative transform since a new parameter “realisation” is obtained there as the one providing minimal distance between data and pseudo-data, with no uncertainty or impact of the prior. The Jacobian of this summary transform (and once again a neural network is used to construct the summary) appears in the importance weight, leading to OMC being unstable, beyond failing to reproduce the variability expressed by the regular posterior or even the ABC posterior. It took me a while to wonder `where is Wally?!’ (the prior) as it only appears in the importance weight.

The fourth talk was by Sergey Levine, Reinforcement Learning, Optimal , Control, and Probabilistic Inference, back to Kullback-Leibler as the objective function, with linkage to optimal control (with distributions as actions?), plus again variational inference, producing an approximation in sequential settings. This sounded like a type of return of the MaxEnt prior, but the talk pace was so intense that I could not follow where the innovations stood.

The fifth talk was by Iuliia Molchanova, on Structured Semi-Implicit Variational Inference, from (I did not know of a Bayesian group in Russia!, as I was under the impression that Bayesian statistics were under-represented there, but apparently the situation is quite different in machine learning.) The talk brought an interesting concept of semi-implicit variational inference, exploiting some form of latent variables as far as I can understand, using mixtures of Gaussians.

The sixth talk was by Rianne van den Berg, Normalizing Flows for Discrete Data, and amounted to covering three papers also discussed in NeurIPS 2019 proper, which I found somewhat of a suboptimal approach to an invited talk, as it turned into a teaser for following talks or posters. But the teasers it contained were quite interesting as they covered normalising flows as integer valued controlled changes of variables using neural networks about which I had just became aware during the poster session, in connection with papers of Papamakarios et al., which I need to soon read.

The seventh talk was by Matthew Hoffman: Langevin Dynamics as Nonparametric Variational Inference, and sounded most interesting, both from title and later reports, as it was bridging Langevin with VI, but I alas missed it for being “stuck” in a tea-house ceremony that lasted much longer than expected. (More later on that side issue!)

After the second poster session (with a highly original proposal by Radford Neal towards creating  non-reversibility at the level of the uniform generator rather than later on), I thus only attended Emily Fox’s Stochastic Gradient MCMC for Sequential Data Sources, which superbly reviewed (in connection with a sequence of papers, including a recent one by Aicher et al.) error rate and convergence properties of stochastic gradient estimator methods there. Another paper I need to soon read!

The one before last speaker, Roman Novak, exposed a Python library about infinite neural networks, for which I had no direct connection (and talks I have always difficulties about libraries, even without a four hour sleep night) and the symposium concluded with a mild round-table. Mild because Frank Wood’s best efforts (and healthy skepticism about round tables!) to initiate controversies, we could not see much to bite from each other’s viewpoint.

O’Bayes 19/1 [snapshots]

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 30, 2019 by xi'an

Although the tutorials of O’Bayes 2019 of yesterday were poorly attended, albeit them being great entries into objective Bayesian model choice, recent advances in MCMC methodology, and the multiple layers of BART, for which I have to blame myself for sticking the beginning of O’Bayes too closely to the end of BNP as only the most dedicated could achieve the commuting from Oxford to Coventry to reach Warwick in time, the first day of talks were well attended, despite weekend commitments, conference fatigue, and perfect summer weather! Here are some snapshots from my bench (and apologies for not covering better the more theoretical talks I had trouble to follow, due to an early and intense morning swimming lesson! Like Steve Walker’s utility based derivation of priors that generalise maximum entropy priors. But being entirely independent from the model does not sound to me like such a desirable feature… And Natalia Bochkina’s Bernstein-von Mises theorem for a location scale semi-parametric model, including a clever construct of a mixture of two Dirichlet priors to achieve proper convergence.)

Jim Berger started the day with a talk on imprecise probabilities, involving the society for imprecise probability, which I discovered while reading Keynes’ book, with a neat resolution of the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox, when re-expressing the null as an imprecise null, with the posterior of the null no longer converging to one, with a limit depending on the prior modelling, if involving a prior on the bias as well, with Chris discussing the talk and mentioning a recent work with Edwin Fong on reinterpreting marginal likelihood as exhaustive X validation, summing over all possible subsets of the data [using log marginal predictive].Håvard Rue did a follow-up talk from his Valencià O’Bayes 2015 talk on PC-priors. With a pretty hilarious introduction on his difficulties with constructing priors and counseling students about their Bayesian modelling. With a list of principles and desiderata to define a reference prior. However, I somewhat disagree with his argument that the Kullback-Leibler distance from the simpler (base) model cannot be scaled, as it is essentially a log-likelihood. And it feels like multivariate parameters need some sort of separability to define distance(s) to the base model since the distance somewhat summarises the whole departure from the simpler model. (Håvard also joined my achievement of putting an ostrich in a slide!) In his discussion, Robin Ryder made a very pragmatic recap on the difficulties with constructing priors. And pointing out a natural link with ABC (which brings us back to Don Rubin’s motivation for introducing the algorithm as a formal thought experiment).

Sara Wade gave the final talk on the day about her work on Bayesian cluster analysis. Which discussion in Bayesian Analysis I alas missed. Cluster estimation, as mentioned frequently on this blog, is a rather frustrating challenge despite the simple formulation of the problem. (And I will not mention Larry’s tequila analogy!) The current approach is based on loss functions directly addressing the clustering aspect, integrating out the parameters. Which produces the interesting notion of neighbourhoods of partitions and hence credible balls in the space of partitions. It still remains unclear to me that cluster estimation is at all achievable, since the partition space explodes with the sample size and hence makes the most probable cluster more and more unlikely in that space. Somewhat paradoxically, the paper concludes that estimating the cluster produces a more reliable estimator on the number of clusters than looking at the marginal distribution on this number. In her discussion, Clara Grazian also pointed the ambivalent use of clustering, where the intended meaning somehow diverges from the meaning induced by the mixture model.

MaxEnt 2019 [last call]

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel with tags , , , , , , , on April 30, 2019 by xi'an

For those who definitely do not want to attend O’Bayes 2019 in Warwick,  the Max Ent 2019 conference is taking place at the Max Planck Institute for plasma physics in Garching, near Münich, (south) Germany at the same time. Registration is still open at a reduced rate and it is yet not too late to submit an abstract. A few hours left. (While it is still possible to submit a poster for O’Bayes 2019 and to register.)

Max Ent at Max Plank

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on December 21, 2018 by xi'an

questioning the Bayesian choice

Posted in Books, Kids, Mountains, pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on November 13, 2018 by xi'an

When I woke up (very early!) in Oaxaca, on Remembrance Day, I noticed a long question about The Bayesian Choice contents on X validated. The originator of the question (OQ) was puzzled about several statements in the book on maximum entropy  methods, from the nature of the moment constraints, outside standard moments, to the existence of a maximum entropy prior (as exemplified by quantiles), to the deeper issue of the ultimate arbitrariness of “the” maximum entropy prior since it is also determined by the choice of the dominating measure. (Never neglect the dominating measure!) A more challenging concept, hopefully making it home with the OQ.