borderline deaths

more of Sugiton at dawn [jatp]

calanches de Piana [jatp]

ISB@CIRM: through the looking glass

It’s now official!, thanks to the support of the Société Mathématique de France (SMF), the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and the Université Aix-Marseille, we are going to have a mirror workshop at CIRM, Marseille (France, not South Africa or Ohio!) gathering local Bayesians to attend ISBA 2021 together over the week of 28 June – 2 July, and share more than a virtual meeting room, while increasing the motivation to attend all sessions over a five day ultra-marathon! We also hope to have outdoor poster sessions around breaks.There is no registration fee and no support either, the only cost being the full-board on-site accommodation at CIRM to be paid upon arrival. Registration is open. Until we reach the upper limit set by the centre and depending on the dynamics of the pandemic (and of the administration). So feel free to apply if you are reasonably confident to be allowed and able to reach CIRM on the week of 28 June – 2 July. Which means travelling within the EU, at best.

against method

A vitriolic tribune in Le Monde this weekend by the microbologist Didier Raoult, head of the Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée Marseille, campaining for the immediate use of the hydroxychloroquine sulfate drug for coronavirus patients. Arguing that the major emergency of the coronavirus pandemic calls for this use without waiting for confirmation from clinical trials, without controlled comparison with other drugs or a placebo. Solely a study of patients being administered the drug, outside the usual practice of clinical trials.

“Enfin, l’envahissement des méthodologistes amène à avoir des reflexions purement mathématiques.” [At last, the invasion of methodologists leads to purely mathematical reasonings.]

“Ce modèle, qui a nourri une quantité de méthodologistes, est devenu une dictature morale.” [This model, which has fed quantity of methodologists, has become a moral dictatorship.]

“…il faut nous débarasser des mathématiciens, des metéorologistes [sic] dans ce domaine.” [we must get rid of mathematicians and meteorologists in this domain]

“…conseil scientifique dans lequel on trouvait deux modélisateurs de l’avenir (qui pour moi représentent l’équivalent de l’astrologie), des maniaques de la méthodologie. Les médecins confrontés au problème du soin représentaient une minorité qui n’avait pas nécessairement l’habitude de s’exprimer et qui se trouvait noyée par cet habillage pseudo-scientifique.” […scientific committee including two modelisators of the future (equivalent in my opinion to astrologers), manics of methodology. Physicians facing treatment problems were a minority not necessarily used to intervene, overwhelmed by this pseudo-scientific babbling.]

Obviously I have no expertise in drug development or even in epidemiology, but the name-calling tone of this tribune, as illustrated by the above quotes, is appalling and populist, more in the spirit of Trump than of a rational search for scientific evidence. On the opposite, the arguments therein are a-scientific and reject the use of mathematical and statistical methodology for being… mathematical. And resort to name-calling, while not considering the more than philosophical aspect that opting for this drug rather than another one may be reducing survival chances for some groups of patients. (While the title chosen for this post reflects the title of Raoult’s tribune, with its philosophical pretenses, let me stress that Feyerabend’s book is not mentioned therein and that the article contains no indication that the author relates to Feyerabend’s views.)