**H***ow can one validate the outcome of a validation model? Or can we even imagine validation of this outcome?* This was the starting question for the conference I attended in Hannover. Which obviously engaged me to the utmost. Relating to some past experiences like advising a student working on accelerated tests for fighter electronics. And failing to agree with him on validating a model to turn those accelerated tests within a realistic setting. Or reviewing this book on climate simulation three years ago while visiting Monash University. Since I discuss in details below most talks of the day, here is an opportunity to opt away! Continue reading

## Archive for model uncertainty

## can we trust computer simulations?

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags atmospheric models, Bayesian epistemology, climate simulation, computer model, conference, confirmation, epistemology, Fortran, Hannover, Hempel, Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, Karl Popper, model uncertainty, Monash University, philosophy of sciences, scientific computing, Society for Imprecise Probability, truth, validation, verification on July 10, 2015 by xi'an## EQUIP launch

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags inverse problems, model uncertainty, oil statistics, partial differential equations, postdoctoral position, University of Warwick, Warwick on October 10, 2013 by xi'an**T**oday, as I was around (!), I attended the launch of the new Warwick research project EQUIP (which stands for *Enabling quantification of uncertainty for inverse problems*). This is an EPSRC funded project merging mathematics, numerical analysis, statistics and geophysics, with a primary target application [alas!] in the oil industry. It will start hiring four (4!) postdocs pretty soon. The talks were all interesting, but I particularly liked the idea that they were addressed primarily to students who were potentially interested in the positions. In addition, Mark Girolami gaves a most appreciated insight on the modelling of uncertainty in PDE models, connecting with earlier notions set by Tony O’Hagan, modelling that I hope we can discuss further when both in Warwick!

## Snapshots from CRiSM workshop

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags Bayesian model choice, classification, CRiSM, Dickey-Savage ratio, MCMC, model uncertainty, particle filters, University of Warwick, Zeeman building on May 31, 2010 by xi'an**T**he workshop is a mix of theory, methodology, computational techniques and applications that makes it quite exciting. Although I already gave several versions of my talk in the past year, I still got interesting feedback, in particular a connection between our Savage-Dickey representation and bridge sampling. Among the interesting talks I attended, a few snapshots; both Jim Berger and Dongchu Sun presented new closed form expressions for effective numbers of parameters in complex linear models, Antonio Lijoi covered some mathematics of species estimation models [with some possible connections with Geoff Nicholls’ earlier talk on language classification], Chris Holmes exposed the advances he had made since Edinburgh (at least for those of us who attended both meetings), highlighting an interesting link with LDA, both Chris and Matthew Stephens considering direction selection for discrimination and clustering, Peter Müller talked about the analysis of a genetic pathway model represented as a graph, Robert Kohn zoomed through an adaptive particle MCMC algorithm where the likelihood was estimated (with the interesting side comment that what looks as an unbiased estimator from one perspective is also an auxiliary joint likelihood from another perspective) and David Spiegelhalter gave a both hilarious and thought-provoking talk on the “deeper uncertainty” that surrounds statistical models.

## Model uncertainty in Warwick (2)

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags Bayesian model choice, CRiSM, model uncertainty, University of Warwick on January 21, 2010 by xi'an**T**he workshop on model uncertainty organised by the Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology (**CRiSM**) at the University of Warwick, on May 30-June 1, and discussed in that post is now almost full and there are only a few slots left for contributed talks! The deadline for abstract submission and Young Academic Awards is March 15 but interested readers should apply asap!