The Magicians [book review]

While in Melbourne, I heard a recommendation for Lev Grossman’s The Magicians and the next day, while checking the Melbourne Writers Festival bookstore, found the book (rather than the Kristoff volume I was seeking), bought it, and read it within a few days.

‘Brakebills will remind readers of Hogwarts, though with more illicit fondling. Grossman has written what could crudely be labeled a Harry Potter for adults.” Michael Agger, NYT

So is this an Harry Potter for adults?! First, I think Harry Potter can be read by adults (if I qualify as adult!). This remark presumably means the book should not be read by young readers, maybe, due to recurrent sex and alcohol consumption, plus some drugs and an overall depressive tone.

Back to Harry Potter, there is the same magical boarding school feeling, even though it is located in upstate New York on the Hudson river.  And not in Scotland. With an equivalent to Quidditch, an evil magician, exams, surly teens, one or two love triangles, &tc. If in a more modern and American way. The difference with Harry Potter is that it also doubles as Narnia! A Narnia eventually turned wrong and sour, but nonetheless a strong similarity of stories and ideas. Of course, this parallel could be seen as an attempt at deconstruction, exhibiting the inconsistencies in the original novels, but it is so subtle it does not feel like it. There are the same encounters with sentient animal creatures, who never reappear after, the same call for Kings and Queens, as in Narnia. This lack of depth at exploring the connections between Harry Potter, Narnia and even some aspects of the Wheel of Time is frustrating in that something great could have come of it. And then… then… comes the worst literary trick in my list, the call to a subterranean quest with endless monsters and accidents! (I obviously exclude Tolkien’ Moria episode from this list!!!) Concluding with the evil character dumping information in the last battle to explain missing bits and pieces in the story.

So, in conclusion, not such a magical book, even though I read it within a few days thanks to my 39 hour trip back to Paris. The Magicians remains too teeny for my taste, hearing self-deprecating depressive monologues occurs way too often to make the main character congenial, and the story has not enough depth or structure to be compelling. A reviewer rightly pointed out it feels like fandom fiction. Rather than a universe on its own. (As for instance Aaronovitch’ Rivers of London series.)

Cayuga 1989

George’s dream

While I have shared this idea with many of my friends [in both senses that I mentioned it and that they shared the same feeling that it would be a great improvement], the first time I heard of the notion was in George Casella‘s kitchen in Ithaca, New York, in the early 1990’s… We were emptying the dishwasher together and George was reflecting that it would be so convenient to have a double dishwasher and remove the need to empty it altogether! Although, at the moral level, I think that we should do without dishwashers, I found this was a terrific idea and must have told the joke to most of my friends. I was nonetheless quite surprised and very pleased to receive the news from Nicole today that Fisher & Paykel (from Auckland, New Zealand) had gone all the way to produce a double dishwasher, or more exactly a double dishdrawer, perfectly suited to George’s wishes! (Pleased that she remembered the notion after all those years, not pleased with the prospect of buying a double dish washer for more than double the cost of [and a smaller volume than] a regular dishwasher!)

1500th, 3000th, &tc

As the ‘Og reached its 1500th post and 3000th comment at exactly the same time, a wee and only mildly interesting Sunday morning foray in what was posted so far and attracted the most attention (using the statistics provided by wordpress). The most visited posts:

Title	Views
Home page	203,727
In{s}a(ne)!!	7,422
“simply start over and build something better”	6,264
Julien on R shortcomings	2,676
Sudoku via simulated annealing	2,402
About	1,876
Of black swans and bleak prospects	1,768
Solution manual to Bayesian Core on-line	1,628
Parallel processing of independent Metropolis-Hastings algorithms	1,625
Bayesian p-values	1,595
Bayes’ Theorem	1,537
#2 blog for the statistics geek?!	1,526
Do we need an integrated Bayesian/likelihood inference?	1,501
Coincidence in lotteries	1,396
Solution manual for Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R	1,340
Julian Besag 1945-2010	1,293
Tornado in Central Park	1,093
The Search for Certainty	1,016

Hence, three R posts (incl. one by Julien and one by Ross Ihaka), three (critical) book reviews, two solution manuals, two general Bayesian posts, two computational entries, one paper (with Pierre Jacob and Murray Smith), one obituary, and one photograph news report… Altogether in line with the main purpose of the ‘Og. The most commented posts:

Post	Comments
In{s}a(ne)!!	31
“simply start over and build something better”	30
That the likelihood principle does not hold…	23
Incoherent inference	23
Lack of confidence in ABC model choice	20
Parallel processing of independent Metropolis-Hastings algorithms	19
ABC model choice not to be trusted	17
MCMC with errors	16
Coincidence in lotteries	16
Bessel integral	14
Numerical analysis for statisticians	14

Not exactly the same as above! In particular, the posts about ABC model choice and our PNAS paper got into the list. At last, the top search terms:

Search	Views
surfers paradise	1,050
benidorm	914
introducing monte carlo methods with r	514
andrew wyeth	398
mistborn	352
abele blanc	350
nested sampling	269
particle mcmc	269
bayesian p-value	263
julian besag	257
rites of love and math	249
millenium	237
bayesian p value	222
marie curie	221
bonsai	200

(out of which I removed the dozens of variations on xian’s blog). I find it rather sad that both top entries are beach towns that are completely unrelated to my lifestyle and to my vacation places. Overall, more than a  half of those entries do not strongly relate to the contents of the ‘Og (even though I did post at length about Saunderson’s Mistborn and Larsson’s Millenium trilogies). At last, the most popular clicks are

URL	Clicks
amazon.com/gp/product/1441915753?ie=UTF8&tag=chrprobboo-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=1441915753	1,243
stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/mlm	1,039
terrytao.wordpress.com	583
amazon.com/gp/product/0387389792?ie=UTF8&tag=chrprobboo-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0387389792	575
arxiv.org/abs/1012.2184	531
radfordneal.wordpress.com/2010/08/15/two-surpising-things-about-r	529
romainfrancois.blog.free.fr	505
statisfaction.wordpress.com	404
ceremade.dauphine.fr/~xian/basudo.R	395
stackoverflow.com/questions/3706990/is-r-that-bad-that-it-should-be-rewritten-from-scratch	372
amazon.com/gp/product/0387212396?ie=UTF8&tag=chrprobboo-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0387212396	298
radfordneal.wordpress.com/2010/09/03/fourteen-patches-to-speed-up-r	298
cs.ubc.ca/~cornebis	288
statisticsforum.wordpress.com	282
arxiv.org/abs/1001.2906	279
arxiv.org/abs/1010.1595	257
amazon.com/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&location=http://www.amazon.com/gp/entity/-/B001H6GSKC&tag=chrprobboo-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=390957	256
ceremade.dauphine.fr/~xian/BCS/solutions.pdf	253
rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=3005	243
www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/119424936/PDFSTART	216
stat.auckland.ac.nz/~ihaka/downloads/Compstat-2008.pdf	203

which include links to my books on Amazon, Andrew Gelman’s, Terry Tao’s, Radford Neal’s and Romain François’s blogs, the CREST stat students collective blog, and a few arXiv papers of mine’s…

WSC [2]011

Last day at WSC 2011: as it was again raining, I could not run a second time into the South Mountain Preserve park. (I had a swim at 5am instead and ended up having a nice chat with an old man in the pool under the rain!) My first morning session was rather disappointing with two talks that remained at such a high level of generality as to be useless and a mathematical talk about new forms of stochastic approximation that included proofs and no indication on the calibration of its many parameters. During the coffee break, I tried to have a chat with a vendor of a simulation software but we were using so different vocabularies that I soon gave up. (A lot of the software on display was a-statistical in that users would build a network, specify all parameters, incl. the distributions at the different nodes and start calibrating those parameters towards a behaviour that suited them.) The second session was much more in my area of interest/expertise, with Paul Dupuis giving a talk in the same spirit as the one he gave in New York last September. using large deviations and importance sampling on diffusions. Both following talks were about specially designed importance sampling techniques for rare events and about approximating the zero variance optimal importance function: Yixi Shin gave a talk on cross-entropy based selection of mixtures for the simulation of tail events, connecting somehow with the talk on mixtures of importance sampling distributions I attended yesterday. Although I am afraid I dozed a while during the talk, it was an interesting mix with the determination of the weights by cross-entropy arguments reminded me of what we did for the population Monte Carlo approach (since it also involved some adaptive entropy optimisation). Zdravko Botev gave a talk on approximating the ideal zero variance importance function by MCMC and a sort of Rao-Blackwell estimator that gives an unbiased estimator of this density under stationarity. Then it was time to leave for the airport (and wait in a Starbucks for the plane to Minneapolis and then London to depart, as there is no such thing as a lounge in Phoenix airport…). I had an interesting exchange with a professional magician in the first plane, The Amazing Hondo!, who knew about Persi and was a former math teacher. He explained a few tricks to me, plus showed me his indeed amazing sleight of hands in manipulating cards. In exchange, I took Persi’s book on Magic and Mathematics out of my bag so that he could have look at it. (The trip to London was completely uneventful as I slept most of the way.)

Overall, WSC 2011 was an interesting experience in that (a) the talks I attended on zero variance importance simulation set me thinking again on potential applications of the apparently useless optimality result; (b) it showed me that most people using simulation do not, N.O.T., relate to Monte Carlo techniques (to the extent of being completely foreign to my domains of expertise); and (c) among the parallel sessions that cover military applications, health care simulation, &tc., there always is a theme connecting to mines, which means that I will find sessions to attend when taking part in WSC 2012 in Berlin next year (since I have been invited for a talk). This will be the first time WSC is held outside North America. Hopefully, this will attract simulation addicts from Europe as well as elsewhere.

art brut

water towers