Archive for Norman Fenton

another Sally Clark?

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , on February 22, 2015 by xi'an

“I don’t trust my own intuition when an apparent coincidence occurs; I have to sit down and do the calculations to check whether it’s the kind of thing I might expect to occur at some time and place.” D. Spiegelhalter

I just read in The Guardian an article on the case of the nurse Benjamin Geen, whose conviction to 30 years in jail in 2006 for the murder of two elderly patients rely on inappropriate statistical expertise. As for Sally Clark, the evidence was built around “unusual patterns” of deaths associated with a particular nurse, without taking into account the possible biases in building such patterns. The case against the 2006 expertise is based on reports by David Spiegelhalter, Norman Fenton, Stephen Senn and Sheila Bird, who constitute enough of a dream team towards reconsidering a revision of the conviction. As put forward by Prof Fenton, “at least one hospital in the country would be expected to see this many events over a four-year period, purely by chance.”