Archive for Philadelphia

agent-based models

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , on October 2, 2018 by xi'an

An August issue of Nature I recently browsed [on my NUS trip] contained a news feature on agent- based models applied to understanding the opioid crisis in US. (With a rather sordid picture of a drug injection in Philadelphia, hence my own picture.)

To create an agent-based model, researchers first ‘build’ a virtual town or region, sometimes based on a real place, including buildings such as schools and food shops. They then populate it with agents, using census data to give each one its own characteristics, such as age, race and income, and to distribute the agents throughout the virtual town. The agents are autonomous but operate within pre-programmed routines — going to work five times a week, for instance. Some behaviours may be more random, such as a 5% chance per day of skipping work, or a 50% chance of meeting a certain person in the agent’s network. Once the system is as realistic as possible, the researchers introduce a variable such as a flu virus, with a rate and pattern of spread based on its real-life characteristics. They then run the simulation to test how the agents’ behaviour shifts when a school is closed or a vaccination campaign is started, repeating it thousands of times to determine the likelihood of different outcomes.

While I am obviously supportive of simulation based solutions, I cannot but express some reservation at the outcome, given that it is the product of the assumptions in the model. In Bayesian terms, this is purely prior predictive rather than posterior predictive. There is no hard data to create “realism”, apart from the census data. (The article also mixes the outcome of the simulation with real data. Or epidemiological data, not yet available according to the authors.)

In response to the opioid epidemic, Bobashev’s group has constructed Pain Town — a generic city complete with 10,000 people suffering from chronic pain, 70 drug dealers, 30 doctors, 10 emergency rooms and 10 pharmacies. The researchers run the model over five simulated years, recording how the situation changes each virtual day.

This is not to criticise the use of such tools to experiment with social, medical or political interventions, which practically and ethically cannot be tested in real life and working with such targeted versions of the Sims game can paradoxically be more convincing when dealing with policy makers. If they do not object at the artificiality of the outcome, as they often do for climate change models. Just from reading this general public article, I thus wonder at whether model selection and validation tools are implemented in conjunction with agent-based models…

Larry Brown memorial and workshop, Penn, Nov 30-Dec 01

Posted in Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on August 28, 2018 by xi'an

There will be a memorial service and a workshop in memory of Larry Brown next November 30 – December 01 at Penn, Philadelphia, with talks by Jim Berger, Peter Bickel, Andreas Buja, Tony Cai, Ian Johnstone, Michael Jordan, Mark Low, Avi Mandelbaum, and Bin Yu. Unfortunately for me, this celebration clashes with our “big Bayes” conference in CIRM, Marseilles which ends up on the 30th, so I will not be able to take part in this opportunity to remember and celebrate Larry.

Larry Brown (1940-2018)

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , on February 21, 2018 by xi'an

Just learned a few minutes ago that my friend Larry Brown has passed away today, after fiercely fighting cancer till the end. My thoughts of shared loss and deep support first go to my friend Linda, his wife, and to their children. And to all their colleagues and friends at Wharton. I have know Larry for all of my career, from working on his papers during my PhD to being a temporary tenant in his Cornell University office in White Hall while he was mostly away in sabbatical during the academic year 1988-1989, and then periodically meeting with him in Cornell and then Wharton along the years. He and Linday were always unbelievably welcoming and I fondly remember many times at their place or in superb restaurants in Phillie and elsewhere.  And of course remembering just as fondly the many chats we had along these years about decision theory, admissibility, James-Stein estimation, and all aspects of mathematical statistics he loved and managed at an ethereal level of abstraction. His book on exponential families remains to this day one of the central books in my library, to which I kept referring on a regular basis… For certain, I will miss the friend and the scholar along the coming years, but keep returning to this book and have shared memories coming back to me as I will browse through its yellowed pages and typewriter style. Farewell, Larry, and thanks for everything!

uniform correlation mixtures

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , on December 4, 2015 by xi'an

Philadelphia, Nov. 01, 2010Kai Zhang and my friends from Wharton, Larry Brown, Ed George and Linda Zhao arXived last week a neat mathematical foray into the properties of a marginal bivariate Gaussian density once the correlation ρ is integrated out. While the univariate marginals remain Gaussian (unsurprising, since these marginals do not depend on ρ in the first place), the joint density has the surprising property of being

[1-Φ(max{|x|,|y|})]/2

which turns an infinitely regular density into a density that is not even differentiable everywhere. And which is constant on squares rather than circles or ellipses. This is somewhat paradoxical in that the intuition (at least my intuition!) is that integration increases regularity… I also like the characterisation of the distributions factorising through the infinite norm as scale mixtures of the infinite norm equivalent of normal distributions. The paper proposes several threads for some extensions of this most surprising result. Other come to mind:

  1. What happens when the Jeffreys prior is used in place of the uniform? Or Haldane‘s prior?
  2. Given the mixture representation of t distributions, is there an equivalent for t distributions?
  3. Is there any connection with the equally surprising resolution of the Drton conjecture by Natesh Pillai and Xiao-Li Meng?
  4. In the Khintchine representation, correlated normal variates are created by multiplying a single χ²(3) variate by a vector of uniforms on (-1,1). What are the resulting variates for other degrees of freedomk in the χ²(k) variate?
  5. I also wonder at a connection between this Khintchine representation and the Box-Müller algorithm, as in this earlier X validated question that I turned into an exam problem.

Art brut

Posted in pictures, Travel with tags , on January 29, 2011 by xi'an

Art brut

Posted in pictures with tags , on December 26, 2010 by xi'an

Disas-tea-R at dawn

Posted in Linux, R, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , on December 17, 2010 by xi'an

This was bound to happen sooner or later, given my addiction to tea and sleepless nights, so I eventually managed to spill a cup of tea over my Mac… I had been working for a few hours in my hotel room in Philadelphia, completing an ABC paper with Jean-Michel Marin and Robin Ryder. We had been running experiments in R with Jean-Michel over the past days and I wanted to check some details with him about some graphs he sent me, so we got into a Skype conversation. At the same time, I was running an alternative R code to compare with his, and starting a new ‘Og entry about a current campaign against road accidents. And drinking my fifth or sixth cuppa of the morning. I suddenly realised dawn had come and stood up to raise the blinds next to my desk. Completely forgetting about the earphones on my head. The obvious then occurred: the earphone cord stretched, pulling the teacup over and I turned back to see the keyboard covered with tea… Disaster! I tipped the computer over and grabbed the hotel hairdryer to try to dry it as quickly as possible (apologies to the next room neighbour!). Contrary to all advices, I did not turn the Mac off but kept running the R program instead to add to the heat of the dryer. In retrospect this was quite silly and I am lucky to get out with only two keys not working!