In collaboration with the Met Office, my friend and Warwick colleague Rito Dutta is co-organising a two-day workshop in Warwick in July on the use of statistics and machine learning tools in weather prediction. Attendance is free, but registration needed for tea breaks.

## Archive for simulator model

## fusing simulation with data science [18-19 July 2023]

Posted in pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags climate change, CRiSM, data assimilation, data science, fusion, Met Office, PDEs, simulation, simulator model, solver, tea, University of Warwick, weather modelling, workshop on June 5, 2023 by xi'an## sample-efficient inference for simulators: complex noise models and time-series [One World ABC seminar]

Posted in Statistics with tags Gaussian processes, likelihood-free inference, One World ABC Seminar, simulator, simulator model, time series, webinar on February 18, 2023 by xi'an**T**he next One World ABC seminar will take place next Thursday, 23 Feb, at 9:30 UK time, with a talk by Alexander Aushev, on the above, based on a paper with Tran, Pesonen, Howes, and Kaski:

Simulators are becoming more complex, with their parameter inference requiring as few simulations as possible. This talk will go over two likelihood-free inference (LFI) challenges for computationally intensive simulators. The first challenge is modeling complex simulator noise, which is frequently oversimplified by existing methods or needs far too many simulations. I will discuss how LFI can handle multimodal, non-stationary, and heteroscedastic noise distributions in Bayesian Optimization by using deep Gaussian processes as surrogate models. The second challenge involves simulators in time-series settings, in which the observed time-series data is generated by an unknown stochastic process of simulator parameters. Modern LFI methods, in such cases, either require an accurate model of parameter transition dynamics (e.g. available for sampling) or assume it to be linear. In the last part of the talk, I will discuss the challenges and solutions for performing LFI in such time-series settings, which involve learning the unknown transition dynamics of simulator parameters.

## mining gold [ABC in PNAS]

Posted in Books, Statistics with tags ABC, Charlie Geyer, EM algorithm, Galton Board, GANs, intractable likelihood, latent variable models, National Academy of Science, PNAS, quincunx, Rao-Blackwellisation, simulator model on March 13, 2020 by xi'an**J**ohann Brehmer and co-authors have just published a paper in PNAS entitled “Mining gold from implicit models to improve likelihood-free inference”. (Besides the pun about mining gold, the paper also involves techniques named RASCAL and SCANDAL, respectively! For *Ratio And SCore Approximate Likelihood ratio* and *SCore-Augmented Neural Density Approximates Likelihood*.) This setup is not ABC per se in that their simulator is used both to generate training data and construct a tractable surrogate model. Exploiting Geyer’s (1994) classification trick of expressing the likelihood ratio as the optimal classification ratio when facing two equal-size samples from one density and the other.

“For all these inference strategies, the augmented data is particularly powerful for enhancing the power of simulation-based inference for small changes in the parameter θ.”

Brehmer et al. argue that “the most important novel contribution that differentiates our work from the existing methods is the observation that additional information can be extracted from the simulator, and the development of loss functions that allow us to use this “augmented” data to more efficiently learn surrogates for the likelihood function.” Rather than starting from a statistical model, they also seem to use a scientific simulator made of multiple layers of latent variables **z**, where

x=F⁰(u⁰,z¹,θ), z¹=G¹(u¹,z²), z²=G¹(u²,z³), …

although they also call the marginal of x, p(x|θ), an (intractable) likelihood.

“The integral of the log is not the log of the integral!”

The central notion behind the improvement is a form of Rao-Blackwellisation, exploiting the simulated **z**‘s. Joint score functions and joint likelihood ratios are then available. Ignoring biases, the authors demonstrate that the closest approximation to the joint likelihood ratio and the joint score function that only depends on x is the actual likelihood ratio and the actual score function, respectively. Which sounds like an older EM result, except that the roles of estimate and target quantity are somehow inverted: one is approximating the marginal with the joint, while the marginal is the “best” approximation of the joint. But in the implementation of the method, an estimate of the (observed and intractable) likelihood ratio is indeed produced towards minimising an empirical loss based on two simulated samples. Learning this estimate ê(x) then allows one to use it for the actual data. It however requires fitting a new ê(x) for each pair of parameters. Providing as well an estimator of the likelihood p(x|θ). (Hence the SCANDAL!!!) A second type of approximation of the likelihood starts from the approximate value of the likelihood p(x|θ⁰) at a fixed value θ⁰ and expands it locally as an exponential family shift, with the score t(x|θ⁰) as sufficient statistic.

I find the paper definitely interesting even though it requires the representation of the (true) likelihood as a marginalisation over multiple layers of latent variables **z**. And does not provide an evaluation of the error involved in the process when the model is misspecified. As a minor supplementary appeal of the paper, the use of an asymmetric Galton quincunx to illustrate an intractable array of latent variables will certainly induce me to exploit it in projects and courses!

*[Disclaimer: I was not involved in the PNAS editorial process at any point!]*

## asymptotically exact inference in likelihood-free models [a reply from the authors]

Posted in R, Statistics with tags ABC, ABC-MCMC, arXiv, Edinburgh, generator, Hamiltonian, HMC, Jacobian, likelihood-free methods, Lotka-Volterra, manifold, normalisation, pseudo-marginal MCMC, quasi-Newton resolution, reply, Riemann manifold, simulation under restrictions, simulator model on December 1, 2016 by xi'an*[Following my post of lastTuesday, Matt Graham commented on the paper with force détails. Here are those comments. A nicer HTML version of the Markdown reply below is also available on Github.]*

Thanks for the comments on the paper!

A few additional replies to augment what Amos wrote:

This however sounds somewhat intense in that it involves a quasi-Newton resolution at each step.

The method is definitely computationally expensive. If the constraint function is of the form of a function from an M-dimensional space to an N-dimensional space, with M≥N, for large N the dominant costs at each timestep are usually the constraint Jacobian (∂c/∂u) evaluation (with reverse-mode automatic differentiation this can be evaluated at a cost of O(N) generator / constraint evaluations) and Cholesky decomposition of the Jacobian product (∂c/∂u)(∂c/∂u)‘ with O(N³) cost (though in many cases e.g. i.i.d. or Markovian simulated data, structure in the generator Jacobian can be exploited to give a significantly reduced cost). Each inner Quasi-Newton update involves a pair of triangular solve operations which have a O(N²) cost, two matrix-vector multiplications with O(MN) cost, and a single constraint / generator function evaluation; the number of Quasi-Newton updates required for convergence in the numerical experiments tended to be much less than N hence the Quasi-Newton iteration tended not to be the main cost.

The high computation cost per update is traded off however with often being able to make much larger proposed moves in high-dimensional state spaces with a high chance of acceptance compared to ABC MCMC approaches. Even in the relatively small Lotka-Volterra example we provide which has an input dimension of 104 (four inputs which map to ‘parameters’, and 100 inputs which map to ‘noise’ variables), the ABC MCMC chains using the coarse ABC kernel radius ϵ=100 with comparably very cheap updates were significantly less efficient in terms of effective sample size / computation time than the proposed constrained HMC approach. This was in large part due to the elliptical slice sampling updates in the ABC MCMC chains generally collapsing down to very small moves even for this relatively coarse ϵ. Performance was even worse using non-adaptive ABC MCMC methods and for smaller ϵ, and for higher input dimensions (e.g. using a longer sequence with correspondingly more random inputs) the comparison becomes even more favourable for the constrained HMC approach. Continue reading