against the Dutch book argument

In continuation of the previous post, here are my slides for this afternoon talk at the 4th BFF conference (with nothing against Dutch people of course!, or anyone actually since this is a “best friends forever” conference):

RSS Read Paper

I had not attended a Read Paper session at the Royal Statistical Society in Errol Street for quite a while and hence it was quite a treat to be back there, especially as a seconder of the vote of thanks for the paper of Andrew Gelman and Christian Hennig. (I realised at this occasion that I had always been invited as a seconder, who in the tradition of the Read Papers is expected to be more critical of the paper. When I mentioned that to a friend, he replied they knew me well!) Listening to Andrew (with no slide) and Christian made me think further about the foundations of statistics and the reasons why we proceed as we do. In particular about the meaning and usages of a statistical model. Which is only useful (in the all models are wrong meme) if the purpose of the statistical analysis is completely defined. Searching for the truth does not sound good enough. And this brings us back full circle to decision theory in my opinion, which should be part of the whole picture and the virtues of openness, transparency and communication.

During his talk, Christian mentioned outliers as a delicate issue in modelling and I found this was a great example of a notion with no objective meaning, in that it is only defined in terms of or against a model, in that it addresses the case of observations not fitting a model instead of a model not fitting some observations, hence as much a case of incomplete (lazy?) modelling as an issue of difficult inference. And a discussant (whose Flemish name I alas do not remember) came with the slide below of an etymological reminder that originally (as in Aristotle) the meaning of objectivity and subjectivity were inverted, in that the later meant about the intrinsic nature of the object, while the former was about the perception of this object. It is only in the modern (?) era that Immanuel Kant reverted the meanings…Last thing, I plan to arXiv my discussions, so feel free to send me yours to add to the arXiv document. And make sure to spread the word about this discussion paper to all O-Bayesians as they should feel concerned about this debate!

MCqMC 2016 [#1]

This week, I attend the MCqMC 2016 conference in Stanford, which is quite an exciting gathering of researchers involved in various aspects of Monte Carlo methods. As Art Owen put it in his welcoming talk, the whole Carlo family is there! (Not to mention how pleasant the Stanford Campus currently is, after the scorching heat we met the past week in Northern California inlands.) My talk is on folded Markov chains, which is a proposal Randal and I have been working on for quite a while, with Gareth joining us more recently. The basic idea was inspired from a discussion I had about a blog post, so long ago that I cannot even trace it! Namely, when defining an inside set A and an outside set, such that the outside set can be projected onto the inside set, one can fold both the target and the proposal, essentially looking at a collection of values for each step of the Markov chain. In other words, the problem can be reduced to A at essentially no cost and with the benefits of a compact support A and of a possibly uniformly ergodic Markov chain. We are still working on the paper, but the idea is both cool and straightforward, so we decided to talk about it at Nordstat 2016 and now MCqMC 2016.

CRiSM workshop on estimating constants [slides]

A short announcement that the slides of almost all talks at the CRiSM workshop on estimating constants last April 20-22 are now available. Enjoy (and dicuss)!

seminar in Harvard

Next week, I will be in Harvard Monday and Tuesday, visiting friends in the Department of Statistics and giving a seminar. The slides for the talk will be quite similar to those of my talk in Bristol, a few weeks ago. Hopefully, there will not be too much overlap between both audiences! And hopefully I’ll manage to get to my conclusion before all hell breaks loose (which is why I strategically set my conclusion in the early slides!)

off to Oxford

I am off to Oxford this evening for teaching once again in the Bayesian module of the OxWaSP programme. Joint PhD programme between Oxford and Warwick, supported by the EPSRC. And with around a dozen new [excellent!] PhD students every year. Here are the slides of a longer course that I will use in the coming days:

And by popular request (!) here is the heading of my Beamer file:

\documentclass[xcolor=dvipsnames,professionalfonts]{beamer}
\usepackage{colordvi}
\usetheme{Montpellier}
\usecolortheme{beaver}
% Rather be using my own color
\definecolor{LightGrey}{rgb}{0.84,0.83,0.83}
\definecolor{LightYell}{rgb}{0.90,0.83,0.70}
\definecolor{StroYell}{rgb}{0.95,0.88,0.72}
\definecolor{myem}{rgb}{0.797,0.598,0.598}
\definecolor{lightred}{rgb}{0.75,0.033,0}
\definecolor{shadecolor1}{rgb}{0.90,0.83,0.70}
\setbeamercovered{transparent=20}
\setbeamercolor{structure}{fg=myem!120}
\setbeamercolor{alerted text}{fg=lightred}
\setbeamertemplate{blocks}[rounded][shadow=true]

delayed in Seattle

Here are the slides of my talk on delayed acceptance I present this afternoon at JSM 2015, in Seattle, in the Bayesian Computation I (2pm, room CC-4C1) and II (4pm, room CC-3A) sessions Omiros Papaspiliopoulos and myself put together (sponsored by IMS and ISBA):