**N**ozer Singpurwalla, Nick. Polson, and Refik Soyer have just arXived a remarkable survey on the history of signal processing, from Gauß, Yule, Kolmogorov and Wiener, to Ragazzini, Shanon, Kálmán [who, I was surprised to learn, died in Gainesville last year!], Gibbs sampling, and the particle filters of the 1990’s.

## Archive for stochastic processes

## from least squares to signal processing and particle filtering

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics, University life with tags Andrei Kolmogorov, auxiliary particle filter, Carl Friedrich Gauss, importance sampling, Kalman filter, R.E. Kálmán, Shannon, signal processing, stochastic processes on June 6, 2017 by xi'an## Sunday morning reading

Posted in Books, Kids, University life with tags Brexit, Nature, predatory publishing, random walk, refereeing, stochastic processes on June 30, 2016 by xi'anA very interesting issue of Nature I read this morning while having breakfast. A post-brexit read of a pre-brexit issue. Apart from the several articles arguing against Brexit and its dire consequences on British science [but preaching to the converted for which percentage of the Brexit voters does read Nature?!], a short vignette on the differences between fields for the average time spent for refereeing a paper (maths takes twice as long as social sciences and academics older than 65 half the time of researchers under 36!). A letter calling for action against predatory publishers. And the first maths paper published since I started reading Nature on an almost-regular basis: it studies mean first-passage time for non-Markov random walks. Which are specified as time-homogeneous increments. It is sort of a weird maths paper in that I do not see where the maths novelty stands and why the paper only contains half a dozen formulas… Maybe not a maths paper after all.

## métro static

Posted in Kids, Statistics, Travel with tags Bayesian tests of hypotheses, Birmingham, concentration inequalities, signal processing, SPA 2015, stochastic processes, University of Oxford on July 19, 2015 by xi'an*[In the train shuttle at Birmingham airport, two young guys, maybe back from SPA 2015, discussing signal processing:]*

– In Bayesian statistics, they use a different approach to testing hypotheses… You see, they put priors on the different hypotheses…

– But in the end it all boils down to concentration inequalities…

## Statistics month in Marseilles (CIRM)

Posted in Books, Kids, Mountains, pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life, Wines with tags Bayesian Essentials with R, Bayesian statistics, bouillabaisse, calanques, Cassis, CIRM, CNRS, copulas, extremes, France, machine learning, Marseille, minicourse, SMF, stochastic processes on June 24, 2015 by xi'an**N**ext February, the fabulous Centre International de Recherche en Mathématiques (CIRM) in Marseilles, France, will hold a Statistics month, with the following programme over five weeks

- 1 – 6 February, 2016 Learning
- 8 – 12 February, 2016 Mathématical statistics
- 15 – 19 February, 2016 Processes
- 22 – 26 February, 2016 Extremes, Copulas and Actuarial Science
- 29 February – 4 March, 2016 Bayesian statistics and algorithms

Each week will see minicourses of a few hours (2-3) and advanced talks, leaving time for interactions and collaborations. (I will give one of those minicourses on Bayesian foundations.) The scientific organisers of the B’ week are Gilles Celeux and Nicolas Chopin.

The CIRM is a wonderful meeting place, in the mountains between Marseilles and Cassis, with many trails to walk and run, and hundreds of fantastic climbing routes in the Calanques at all levels. (In February, the sea is too cold to contemplate swimming. The good side is that it is not too warm to climb and the risk of bush fire is very low!) We stayed there with Jean-Michel Marin a few years ago when preparing Bayesian Essentials. The maths and stats library is well-provided, with permanent access for quiet working sessions. This is the French version of the equally fantastic German Mathematik Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach. There will be financial support available from the supporting societies and research bodies, at least for young participants and the costs if any are low, for excellent food and excellent lodging. Definitely not a scam conference!

## probabilistic numerics

Posted in pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags Bayesian statistics, Brownian motion, Coventry, CRiSM, Gaussian processes, numerical analysis, numerical integration, Persi Diaconis, probability theory, Runge-Kutta, stochastic processes, sunrise, trapezoidal approximation, University of Warwick, Warwickshire, workshop on April 27, 2015 by xi'an**I** attended an highly unusual workshop while in Warwick last week. Unusual for me, obviously. It was about *probabilistic numerics*, i.e., the use of probabilistic or stochastic arguments in the numerical resolution of (possibly) deterministic problems. The notion in this approach is fairly Bayesian in that it makes use to prior information or belief about the quantity of interest, e.g., a function, to construct an usually Gaussian process prior and derive both an estimator that is identical to a numerical method (e.g., Runge-Kutta or trapezoidal integration) and uncertainty or variability around this estimator. While I did not grasp much more than the classy introduction talk by Philipp Hennig, this concept sounds fairly interesting, if only because of the Bayesian connection, and I wonder if we will soon see a probability numerics section at ISBA! More seriously, placing priors on functions or functionals is a highly formal perspective (as in Bayesian non-parametrics) and it makes me wonder how much of the data (evaluation of a function at a given set of points) and how much of the prior is reflected in the output [variability]. (Obviously, one could also ask a similar question for statistical analyses!) For instance, issues of singularity arise among those stochastic process priors.

Another question that stemmed from this talk is whether or not more efficient numerical methods can derived that way, in addition to recovering the most classical ones. Somewhat, somehow, given the idealised nature of the prior, it feels like priors could be more easily compared or ranked than in classical statistical problems. Since the aim is to figure out the value of an integral or the solution to an ODE. (Or maybe not, since again almost the same could be said about estimating a normal mean.)

## a partial review of BISP8 [guest post]

Posted in Statistics, Travel, University life with tags Bayesian inference, BISP, CNR, IMATI, ISBA, Italia, Milano, stochastic processes on June 17, 2013 by xi'an**C**hris Drovandi (QUT) sent me his impression on BISP8 that just took place in Milano, Italia (BISP stands for Bayesian inference in stochastic processes):

Here is a review of some of the talks at BISP8. For the other talks I do not have sufficient background to give the talks the justice that they deserve. It was a very enjoyable small workshop with many talks in my areas of interest.

In the first session Vanja Dukic presented bayesian inference of SEIR epidemic DE models and state space models of google flu trends data. In the case of the state space models a particle learning algorithm was developed. The author considered both fixed and random effects for the data in each US state. In the second session, Murali Haran presented a likelihood-free approach for inferring the parameters of a spatio-temporal epidemic model. The speaker used a Gaussian process emulator of the model based on model simulations from a regulator grid of parameter values. The emulator approach is suggested to be less intensive in terms of the number of model simulations compared with abc but is only suitable for low dimensional inference problems (even less so than abc).

In the first session of day 2 Ana Palacios combined the gompertz model with Markov processes to create flexible and realistic stochastic growth models. The resulting model has a difficult likelihood and inference was performed by completing the likelihood creating simple Gibbs moves and by ABC.

There were 3 talks in a row on inference for SDEs. The first, by Simon Särkkä, avoids evaluating an intractable transition density by proposing from another diffusion model and computing importance weights using the girsanov theorem. Next, Samuel Kou used a population MCMC type approach where each chain had a different Euler discretisation. This helps improve mixing for the chain with the finest grid. Moves between chains are complicated by the different dimension for each chain. The author used a filling approach to overcome this. A very interesting aspect of the talk was using information from all chains to extrapolate various posterior quantiles to delta_t is 0 (no discretisation implying the correct posterior). I assume the extrapolation may not work as well for the extreme quantiles. The third talk, by Andrew Golightly, proposed an auxiliary approach to improve PMCMC for these models. This talk was the most technical (for me) so need more time to digest. Following my talk (based on some work here. And some current work.) was an applied talk using smc2 methodology.

On the final day Alexandros Beskos investigated the use of SMC for Bayesian inference for a high dimensional (static) parameter. SMC is advocated here due to the ease of adaptation relative to MCMC when there is no structure in the model. The base of the approach I believe was that of Chopin (2002).

## workshop in Columbia

Posted in Statistics, Travel, University life with tags Columbia University, large deviation, MCMC, Monte Carlo methods, New York city, particle MCMC, Reuven Rubinstein, simulation, stochastic processes, tempering on September 24, 2011 by xi'an**T**he workshop in Columbia University on Computational Methods in Applied Sciences is quite diverse in its topics. Reminding me of the conference on Efficient Monte Carlo in Sandbjerg Estate, Sønderborg in 2008, celebrating the 70th birthday of Reuven Rubinstein, incl. some colleagues I had not met since this meeting. Yesterday I thus heard (quite interesting) talks on domains somehow far from my own, from Robert Adler on cohomology (giving a second look at the thing after the talk I head in Wharton last year), to José Blanchet on simulation for infinite server queues (with a link to perfect sampling I could not exactly trace but that was certainly there). Several of the talks made me think of our Brownian motion confidence band paper, with Wilfrid Kendall and Jean-Michel Marin, esp. Gennady Samorodnitsky’s on the maximum of stochastic processes (and wonder whether we could have gone further in that direction). Pierre Del Moral presented a broad overview of the Feynman-Kacs’ approaches to particle methods, in particular particle MCMC, with application to some financial objects. Paul Glasserman talked about robust MCMC, which I found quite an appealing concept in that it included uncertainties about the model itself. And linked with minimax concepts. And Paul Dupuis exposed a parallel tempering method linked with large deviations, whose paper I am definitely looking forward. Now it is more than time to work on my own talk! (On a very personal basis, I sadly lost my sturdy Canon camera in the taxi from the airport! Will need a new one for the ‘Og!)