**A** most unusual definition (?) of sufficiency came up on X validated this morn, as stated in Koller and Friedman’s Probabilistic Graphical Models. But as reported, it is quite restrictive, apparently limited to the natural statistic of an exponential family with conditionally Uniform ancillary (since the likelihood functions are *equal* rather than *proportional*). Even more strangely, with this formulation, the Normal sample size *n* *[typo on the last line of the question]* appears as a component of the sufficient statistic (Example 17.4). While not being random.

## Archive for sufficient statistics

## a most unusual definition of sufficiency

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics with tags ancillary statistics, cross validated, graphical models, sufficient statistics on January 13, 2021 by xi'an## factorisation theorem on densities

Posted in Statistics with tags cross validated, dominating measure, exponential families, factorisation, final exam, mathematical statistics, sufficient statistics on December 23, 2020 by xi'anAnother occurrence, while building my final math stat exam for my (quarantined!) third year students, of a question on X validated that led me to write down more precisely an argument for the decomposition of densities in exponential families. Albeit the decomposition is somewhat moot *(and lost on the initiator of the question since this person later posted an answer ignoring measures)*, as it all depends on the choice of the dominating measures over X, T(X), and the slices {x; T(x)=t}. The fact that the slice does depend on t requires the measure to accept a potential dependence on t, in which case the conditional density wrt this measure can as well be constant.

## A precursor of ABC-Gibbs

Posted in Books, R, Statistics with tags ABC, ABC-Gibbs, compatible conditional distributions, Genetics, Gibbs sampler, high dimensions, incoherent inference, incompatible conditionals, insufficiency, likelihood-free methods, sufficient statistics on June 7, 2019 by xi'an**F**ollowing our arXival of ABC-Gibbs, Dennis Prangle pointed out to us a 2016 paper by Athanasios Kousathanas, Christoph Leuenberger, Jonas Helfer, Mathieu Quinodoz, Matthieu Foll, and Daniel Wegmann, Likelihood-Free Inference in High-Dimensional Model, published in Genetics, Vol. 203, 893–904 in June 2016. This paper contains a version of ABC Gibbs where parameters are sequentially simulated from conditionals that depend on the data only through small dimension conditionally sufficient statistics. I had actually blogged about this paper in 2015 but since then completely forgotten about it. (The comments I had made at the time still hold, already pertaining to the coherence or lack thereof of the sampler. I had also forgotten I had run an experiment of an exact Gibbs sampler with incoherent conditionals, which then seemed to converge to something, if not the exact posterior.)

All ABC algorithms, including ABC-PaSS introduced here, require that statistics are sufficient for estimating the parameters of a given model. As mentioned above, parameter-wise sufficient statistics as required by ABC-PaSS are trivial to find for distributions of the exponential family. Since many population genetics models do not follow such distributions, sufficient statistics are known for the most simple models only. For more realistic models involving multiple populations or population size changes, only approximately-sufficient statistics can be found.

While Gibbs sampling is not mentioned in the paper, this is indeed a form of ABC-Gibbs, with the advantage of not facing convergence issues thanks to the sufficiency. The drawback being that this setting is restricted to exponential families and hence difficult to extrapolate to non-exponential distributions, as using almost-sufficient (or not) summary statistics leads to incompatible conditionals and thus jeopardise the convergence of the sampler. When thinking a wee bit more about the case treated by Kousathanas et al., I am actually uncertain about the validation of the sampler. When tolerance is equal to zero, this is not an issue as it reproduces the regular Gibbs sampler. Otherwise, each conditional ABC step amounts to introducing an auxiliary variable represented by the simulated summary statistic. Since the distribution of this summary statistic depends on more than the parameter for which it is sufficient, in general, it should also appear in the conditional distribution of other parameters. At least from this Gibbs perspective, it thus relies on incompatible conditionals, which makes the conditions proposed in our own paper the more relevant.

## a glaringly long explanation

Posted in Statistics with tags ABC, Bayesian Choice, cross validated, exponential families, proof, socks, sufficient statistics, teaching, Thomas Bayes' portrait, undergraduates, Université Paris Dauphine on December 19, 2018 by xi'an**I**t is funny that, when I am teaching the rudiments of Bayesian statistics to my undergraduate students in Paris-Dauphine, including ABC via Rasmus’ socks, specific questions about the book (The Bayesian Choice) start popping up on X validated! Last week was about the proof that ABC is exact when the tolerance is zero. And the summary statistic sufficient.

This week is about conjugate distributions for exponential families (not that there are many others!). Which led me to explain both the validation of the conjugacy and the derivation of the posterior expectation of the mean of the natural sufficient statistic in far more details than in the book itself. Hopefully in a profitable way.

## fiducial simulation

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags book review, conditional density, English train, fiducial statistics, Jeffreys prior, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Oxford, pseudo-random generator, simulation, Student's t distribution, sufficient statistics, University of Warwick on April 19, 2018 by xi'an**W**hile reading Confidence, Likelihood, Probability), by Tore Schweder and Nils Hjort, in the train from Oxford to Warwick, I came upon this unexpected property shown by Lindqvist and Taraldsen (Biometrika, 2005) that to simulate a sample **y** conditional on the realisation of a sufficient statistic, T(**y**)=t⁰, it is sufficient (!!!) to simulate the components of **y** as y=G(u,θ), with u a random variable with fixed distribution, e.g., a U(0,1), and to solve in θ the fixed point equation T(**y**)=t⁰. Assuming there exists a single solution. Brilliant (like an aurora borealis)! To borrow a simple example from the authors, take an exponential sample to be simulated given the sum statistics. As it is well-known, the conditional distribution is then a (rescaled) Beta and the proposed algorithm ends up being a standard Beta generator. For the method to work in general, T(**y**) must factorise through a function of the u’s, a so-called pivotal condition which brings us back to my post title. If this condition does not hold, the authors once again brilliantly introduce a pseudo-prior distribution on the parameter θ to make it independent from the u’s conditional on T(**y**)=t⁰. And discuss the choice of the Jeffreys prior as optimal in this setting even when this prior is improper. While the setting is necessarily one of exponential families and of sufficient conditioning statistics, I find it amazing that this property is not more well-known [at least by me!]. And wonder if there is an equivalent outside exponential families, for instance for simulating a ** t** sample conditional on the average of this sample.