Archive for summer

likelihood-free inference by ratio estimation

Posted in Books, Mountains, pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 9, 2019 by xi'an

“This approach for posterior estimation with generative models mirrors the approach of Gutmann and Hyvärinen (2012) for the estimation of unnormalised models. The main difference is that here we classify between two simulated data sets while Gutmann and Hyvärinen (2012) classified between the observed data and simulated reference data.”

A 2018 arXiv posting by Owen Thomas et al. (including my colleague at Warwick, Rito Dutta, CoI warning!) about estimating the likelihood (and the posterior) when it is intractable. Likelihood-free but not ABC, since the ratio likelihood to marginal is estimated in a non- or semi-parametric (and biased) way. Following Geyer’s 1994 fabulous estimate of an unknown normalising constant via logistic regression, the current paper which I read in preparation for my discussion in the ABC optimal design in Salzburg uses probabilistic classification and an exponential family representation of the ratio. Opposing data from the density and data from the marginal, assuming both can be readily produced. The logistic regression minimizing the asymptotic classification error is the logistic transform of the log-ratio. For a finite (double) sample, this minimization thus leads to an empirical version of the ratio. Or to a smooth version if the log-ratio is represented as a convex combination of summary statistics, turning the approximation into an exponential family,  which is a clever way to buckle the buckle towards ABC notions. And synthetic likelihood. Although with a difference in estimating the exponential family parameters β(θ) by minimizing the classification error, parameters that are indeed conditional on the parameter θ. Actually the paper introduces a further penalisation or regularisation term on those parameters β(θ), which could have been processed by Bayesian Lasso instead. This step is essentially dirving the selection of the summaries, except that it is for each value of the parameter θ, at the expense of a X-validation step. This is quite an original approach, as far as I can tell, but I wonder at the link with more standard density estimation methods, in particular in terms of the precision of the resulting estimate (and the speed of convergence with the sample size, if convergence there is).

free Fall

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , on September 15, 2018 by xi'an

Summer is off, Fall is back, as now the open air swimming pool has closed, the park opens too late for my schedule, shorts have all but disappeared from the streets and classrooms, the last raspberries have dried out, green tomatoes in my garden are unlikely to get any redder, the ant traps are no longer needed, the watering hose has been stored inside along the umbrella, and eating outdoors becomes a challenge, but the return from the traditional August vacation break has seen an explosion in the number of cyclists on my way to Dauphine, meaning I end up on most trips biking with (or against) other [100% nuke free] cyclists, with an improved trip duration (if not safer trips!). And no connection with the free fall tee!

StanCon in Helsinki [29-31 Aug 2018]

Posted in Books, pictures, R, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on March 7, 2018 by xi'an

As emailed to me by Aki Vehtari, the next StanCon will take place this summer in the wonderful city of Helsinki, at the end of August. On Aalto University Töölö Campus precisely. The list of speakers and tutorial teachers is available on the webpage. (The only “negative point” is that the conference does not include a Tuesday, the night of the transcendence 2 miles race!) Somewhat concluding this never-ending summer of Bayesian conferences!

art brut

Posted in Kids, Mountains, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , on September 9, 2016 by xi'an

Sacramento skyline [jatp]

Posted in pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , on August 19, 2016 by xi'an