Archive for Texas

Texan black swan

Posted in Books, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , on September 12, 2017 by xi'an

“Un événement improbable aux conséquences d’autant plus désastreuses que l’on ne s’y est pas préparé.”

This weekend, there was a short article in Le Monde about the Harvey storm as a Texan illustration of Taleb’s black swan. An analysis that would imply every extreme event like this “once-in-a-thousand year” event (?) can be called a black swan… “An improbable event with catastrophic consequences, the more because it had not been provisioned”, as the above quote translates. Ironically, there is another article in the same journal, about the catastrophe being “ordinary” and “not unexpected”! While such massive floods are indeed impacting a huge number of people and companies, because the storm happened to pour an unusual amount of rain right on top of Houston, they indeed remain within the predictable and not so improbable in terms of the amount of water deposited in the area and in terms of damages, given the amount and style of construction over flood plains. For instance, Houston is less than 50 feet above sea level, has fairly old drainage and pipe systems, and lacks a zoning code. With mostly one or two-story high buildings rather than higher rises. (Incidentally, I appreciated the juxtaposition of the article with the add for Le Monde des Religions and its picture of a devilesque black goat!)


OBayes 17 travel support

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , on September 1, 2017 by xi'an

The OBayes 17 conference in Austin, Texas, next December is getting nearer! This post is to advertise for the availability of a dozen travel grants for junior investigators, as detailed on the webpage of the conference. One of those grants will even become an ISBA New Researchers Travel Award for the event! This comes on top of registration and accommodation being quite reasonable, thanks to Peter Mueller’s efforts, and hence makes this conference most affordable and attractive for young researchers. Apply now!!!

and it only gets worse…

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 14, 2017 by xi'an

“Medicaid pays for most of the 1.4 million people in nursing homes (…) With more than 70 million people enrolled in Medicaid, the program certainly faces long-term financial challenges. Certainly, nursing homes would be part of those cuts, not only in reimbursement rates but in reductions in eligibility for nursing home care.” NYT, June 14, 2017

“…the architects of the Trump contraceptive reversal, Ms. Talento, a White House domestic policy aide, and Mr. Bowman, a top lawyer at the Department of Health and Human Services, have the experience and know-how that others in the administration lack. As a lawyer at the Alliance Defending Freedom, Mr. Bowman assailed the contraceptive coverage mandate on behalf of colleges, universities and nonprofit groups that had religious objections to the rule. Ms. Talento, a former aide to Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, spent years warning about the health risks of birth control pills.” NYT, July 11, 2017

“Mr. Trump’s revised executive order, issued in March, limited travel from six mostly Muslim countries for 90 days and suspended the nation’s refugee program for 120 days. The time was needed, the order said, to address gaps in the government’s screening and vetting procedures. Two federal appeals courts have blocked critical parts of the order. The administration had asked that the the lower-court ruling be stayed while the case moves forward. The court granted part of that request in its unsigned opinion. NYT, June 24, 2017

The proposed legislation, which Planned Parenthood labels “the worst bill for women’s health in a generation,” would strip the organization of federal funding for one year and bar any federal tax credits from being used to help buy private health plans that cover abortions.” NYT, June 23, 2017

and it only gets worse…

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 30, 2017 by xi'an

“Four years after Texas gave up millions of dollars in federal Medicaid funds so it could ban Planned Parenthood from participating in a family planning program for low-income women, the state is asking the Trump administration for the money back. If the administration agrees to restore the funding for Texas, it could effectively give states the green light to ban Planned Parenthood from Medicaid family planning programs with no financial consequences.” NYT, May 16, 2017

“According to budget documents obtained by the Washington Post, the Trump administration plans to end the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, which more than 400,000 people are counting on as part of their financial future. Signed into law in 2007 by George W Bush (…), the program offers those whose jobs benefit society – government and non-profit employees – the chance to have their student loans forgiven after 10 years of on-time, income-based payments.” The Guardian, May 20, 2017

The analogy is pervasive among his critics: Donald Trump is like a child. Making him the president was like making a 4-year-old the leader of the free world. But the analogy is profoundly wrong, and it’s unfair to children. The scientific developmental research of the past 30 years shows that Mr. Trump is utterly unlike a 4-year-old. Four-year-olds care deeply about the truth (…) are insatiably curious (…) can pay attention (…) have a strong moral sense.” NYT, May 21, 2017

“If any president tries to impede an investigation — any president, no matter who it is — by interfering with the F.B.I., yes, that would be problematic,” Senator Marco Rubio, on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on CNN. “It would be not just problematic. It would be, obviously, a potential obstruction of justice that people have to make a decision on.”  NYT, May 21, 2017

“A bill to dismantle the Affordable Care Act that narrowly passed the House this month would leave 14 million more people uninsured next year than under President Barack Obama’s health law — and 23 million more in 2026. Some of the nation’s sickest would pay much more for health care.” NYT, May 25, 2017

O’Bayes17, next December in Austin

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on April 5, 2017 by xi'an

The next edition of the OBayes meetings is taking place this December in Austin, Texas! On the campus of the University of Texas (UT), organised by Carlos Carvalho, Peter Mueller,  James Scott, and Tom Shively. On December 10-13. Following a tradition of more than 20 years—I went to most meetings although I missed the very first conference in West Lafayette, Indiana, and only stayed 27 hours in Shanghai!, plus adopted the O’Bayes logo for the Aussois meeting, even though I meant the number of the year rather than for the edition!!—, this meeting brings together researchers interested in objective Bayes theory, methodology, and applications, and related topics, to provide opportunities for young researchers, and to establish new collaborations and partnerships. (The meeting is the biennial meeting of the Objective Bayes section of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, of which I happen to be the current president.)

The list of speakers and discussants this year is quite impressive and far reaching, and everyone is more than welcome to present a poster at the workshop. The first (Sun)day will see a series of tutorials, given by members of the scientific committee (myself included), followed by three days of invited talks with discussions,  plus a poster session on Monday night. And possibly a desert excursion on Thursday! It should be a great meeting and I most warmly invite all ‘Og’s readers to join us in Texas!

O’Bayes 2017 in Austin, Texas

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , on March 30, 2016 by xi'an

The next edition of the O’Bayes conference, O’Bayes 2017, will take place at the University of Texas in Austin, with the tentative dates of Dec. 10-13. Somehow making the connection with the previous O’Bayes in Valencià thanks to its Spanish history (even though, technically, Texas was French from 1684 till 1689!!!). With a local committee made of Lizhen Lin, Tom Shively, Carlos Carvalho & Peter Müller. Further details should emerge in the coming months, but keep this objective date in your calendars! (Note that NIPS 2017 will take place in Long Beach, CA, the week before.)

books for review (in CHANCE)

Posted in Books, R, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , on September 14, 2012 by xi'an

Among the books I received for review in CHANCE, here are some neither I nor my “usual suspects” had enough time or interest in to review:

If you would like to review one of those books, send me an email.with some reference/bio and your mailing address. Be warned though that I will decide on a completely arbitrary way (a) on the chosen reviewers and (b) whether or not to publish a proposed review! (The reviewer keeps the book, as a rule.)