Archive for Ukraine

and it only gets worse [verbatim]

Posted in Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on October 11, 2019 by xi'an

“[DT] is a racist and he stokes racism in this country, and it does not just offend our sensibilities, it fundamentally changes the character of this country and it leads to violence.” Beto O’Rourke, 4 August

“I am the chosen one, somebody had to do it.” DT, 08/21

““Essentially [Greenland] it’s a large real estate deal. A lot of things can be done.” DT, 08/18

“They start forming off the coast of Africa, as they’re moving across the Atlantic, we drop a bomb inside the eye of the hurricane and it disrupts it. Why can’t we do that?” DT, 08/25

“If that perfect phone call with the President of Ukraine isn’t considered appropriate, then no future President can EVER again speak to another foreign leader!” DT, 09/27

“As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!).” DT 10/07

“[The Kurds] didn’t help us in the second world war, they didn’t help us with Normandy.” DT 10/10

Чорнобильська катастрофа

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , on April 26, 2016 by xi'an

Ebola virus [and Mr. Bayes]

Posted in Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , on August 12, 2014 by xi'an

Just like after the Malaysian Airlines flight 370 disappearance, the current Ebola virus outbreak makes me feel we are sorely missing an emergency statistical force to react on urgent issues… It would indeed be quite valuable to have a team of statisticians at the ready to quantify risks and posterior probabilities and avoid media approximations. The situations calling for this reactive force abound. A few days ago I was reading about the unknown number of missing pro-West activists in Eastern Ukraine. Maybe statistical societies could join forces to set such an emergency team?! Whose goals are somewhat different from the great Statistics without Borders

As a side remark, the above philogeny is taken from Dudas and Rambaut’s recent paper in PLOS reassessing the family tree of the current Ebola virus(es) acting in Guinea. The tree is found using MrBayes, which delivers a posterior probability of 1 to this filiation! And concluding “that the rooting of this clade using the very divergent other ebolavirus species is very problematic.”

JSM 2014, Boston [#4]

Posted in Books, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , on August 9, 2014 by xi'an

Last and final day and post at and about JSM 2014! It is very rare that I stay till the last day and it is solely due to family constraints that I attended the very last sessions. It was a bit eerie, walking through the huge structure of the Boston Convention Centre that could easily house several A380 and meeting a few souls dragging a suitcase to the mostly empty rooms… Getting scheduled on the final day of the conference is not the nicest thing and I offer my condolences to all speakers ending up speaking today! Including my former Master student Anne Sabourin.

I first attended the Frontiers of Computer Experiments: Big Data, Calibration, and Validation session with a talk by David Hingdon on the extrapolation limits of computer model, talk that linked very nicely with Stephen Stigler’s Presidential Address and stressed the need for incorporating the often neglected fact that models are not reality. Jared Niemi also presented an approximative way of dealing with large dataset Gaussian process modelling. It was only natural to link this talk with David’s and wonder about the extrapola-bility of the modelling and the risk of over-fitting and the potential for detecting sudden drops in the function.

The major reason why I made the one-hour trip back to the Boston Convention Centre was however theonder about the extrapola-bility of the modelling and the risk of over-fitting and the potential for detecting sudden drops in the function.

The major reason why I made the one-hour trip back to the Boston Convention Centre was however the Human Rights Violations: How Do We Begin Counting the Dead? session. It was both of direct interest to me as I had wondered in the past days about statistically assessing the number of political kidnappings and murders in Eastern Ukraine. And of methodological relevance, as the techniques were connected with capture-recapture and random forests. And of close connections with two speakers who alas could not make it and were replaced by co-authors. The first talk by Samuel Ventura considered ways of accelerating the comparison of entries into multiple lists for identifying unique individuals, with the open methodological question of handling populations of probabilities. As the outcome of random forests. My virtual question related to this talk was why the causes for duplications and errors in the record were completely ignored. At least in the example of the Syrian death, some analysis could be conducted on the reasons for differences in the entries. And maybe a prior model constructed. The second talk by Daniel Manrique-Vallier was about using non-parametric capture-recapture to count the number of dead from several lists. Once again bypassing the use of potential covariates for explaining the differences.  As I noticed a while ago when analysing the population of (police) captured drug addicts in the Greater Paris, the prior modelling has a strong impact on the estimated population. Another point I would have liked to discuss was the repeated argument that Arabic (script?) made the identification of individuals more difficult: my naïve reaction was to wonder whether or not this was due to the absence of fluent Arabic speakers in the team. Who could have further helped to build a model on the potential alternative spellings and derivations of Arabic names. But I maybe missed more subtle difficulties.