Archive for United Kingdom

ten recommendations from the RSS

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on March 21, 2021 by xi'an

‘Statistics have been crucial both to our understanding of the pandemic and to our efforts to fight it. While we hope we won’t see another pandemic on this scale, we need to see a culture change now – with more transparency around data and evidence, stronger mechanisms to challenge the misuse of statistics, and leaders with statistical skills.’

  • Invest in public health data – which should be regarded as critical national infrastructure and a full review of health data should be conducted
  • Publish evidence – all evidence considered by governments and their advisers must be published in a timely and accessible manner
  • Be clear and open about data – government should invest in a central portal, from which the different sources of official data, analysis protocols and up-to-date results can be found
  • Challenge the misuse of statistics – the Office for Statistics Regulation should have its funding augmented so it can better hold the government to account
  • The media needs to step up its responsibilities – government should support media institutions that invest in specialist scientific and medical reporting
  • Build decision makers’ statistical skills – politicians and senior officials should seek out statistical training
  • Build an effective infectious disease surveillance system to monitor the spread of disease – the government should ensure that a real-time surveillance system is ready for future pandemics
  • Increase scrutiny and openness for new diagnostic tests – similar steps to those adopted for vaccine and pharmaceutical evaluation should be followed for diagnostic tests
  • Health data is incomplete without social care data – improving social care data should be a central part of any review of UK health data
  • Evaluation should be put at the heart of policy – efficient evaluations or experiments should be incorporated into any intervention from the start.

on Astra and clots

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 16, 2021 by xi'an

A tribune this morning in The Guardian by David Spiegelhalter on having no evidence that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine causes blood clots.

“It’s a common human tendency to attribute a causal effect between different events, even when there isn’t one present: we wash the car and the next day a bird relieves itself all over the bonnet. Typical.”

David sets the 30 throboembolic events among the 5 million people vaccinated with AstraZeneca in perpective of the expected 100 deep vein thromboses a week within such a population. Which coincides with the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency statement that the blood clots are in par with the expected numbers in the vaccinated population. (The part of the tribune about the yellow card reports, based on 10 million vaccinated people, reiterates the remark but may prove confusing to some!) As for hoping for a rational approach to the issue,  … we would need a different type of vaccine, far from being available! As demonstrated by the decision to temporarily stop vaccinating with this vaccine, causing sure additional deaths in the coming weeks.

“Will we ever be able to resist the urge to find causal relationships between different events? One way of doing this would be promoting the scientific method and ensuring everyone understands this basic principle. Testing a hypothesis helps us see which hunches or assumptions are correct and which aren’t. In this way, randomised trials have proved the effectiveness of some Covid treatments and saved vast numbers of lives, while also showing us that some overblown claims about treatments for Covid-19, such as hydroxychloroquine and convalescent plasma, were incorrect.”

a year ago, a world away

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on February 24, 2021 by xi'an

brutally sent to Coventry

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , on February 7, 2021 by xi'an

professor position at Warwick

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , on January 21, 2021 by xi'an