Archive for United Nations

and it only gets worse…

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 23, 2018 by xi'an

“David Brooks, the New York Times columnist, recently summed up the “Trumpian world-view” writing, “Trump takes every relationship that has historically been based on affection, loyalty, trust and reciprocity and turned it into a relationship based on competition, self-interest, suspicion and efforts to establish dominance.” NYT, June 14

“Donald Trump has dismissed concerns about the widely condemned human rights record of the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un, praising him as a “tough guy”, a “smart guy” and a “great negotiator”.” The Guardian, June 14

“Clinics that call themselves crisis pregnancy centers are not obliged to tell women when state aid may be available to obtain an abortion, according to a US supreme court ruling that represents a blow to pro-choice groups (…) All three of the court’s female members dissented.” The Guardian, June 27

“A resolution to encourage breast-feeding was expected to be approved quickly and easily by the (…) United Nations-affiliated World Health Assembly. Based on decades of research, the resolution says that mother’s milk is healthiest for children and countries should strive to limit the inaccurate or misleading marketing of breast milk substitutes. Then the United States delegation, embracing the interests of infant formula manufacturers, upended the deliberations. The intensity of the administration’s opposition to the breast-feeding resolution stunned public health officials and foreign diplomats, who described it as a marked contrast to the Obama administration.” NYT, July 8

“President Trump on Tuesday pardoned a pair of Oregon cattle ranchers who had been serving out sentences for arson on federal land (…) The pardons undo an Obama administration appeal to impose longer sentences for the Hammonds and show that, at least in this case, the Trump administration is siding with ranchers in the battle over federal lands.” NYT, July 10

“President Trump stood next to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Monday and publicly challenged the conclusion of his own intelligence (…) “No prior president has ever abased himself more abjectly before a tyrant,” Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, said in a statement. “Today’s press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory.” ” NYT, July 16

“The Interior Department on Thursday proposed the most sweeping set of changes in decades to the Endangered Species Act, the law that brought the bald eagle and the Yellowstone grizzly bear back from the edge of extinction but which Republicans say is cumbersome and restricts economic development.” NYT, July 20

and it only gets worse…

Posted in Books, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on February 9, 2018 by xi'an

““Why are we having all these people from shithole countries come here?” Trump said, after being presented with a proposal to restore protections for immigrants from those countries [African nations].” The Guardian, Jan 12, 2018

“The Trump administration is creating an office to protect the religious rights of medical providers, including those who may oppose abortion or transgender rights.” The Guardian, Jan 18, 2018

“Nuclear experts are warning, using some of their most urgent language since President Trump took office, that Hawaii’s false alarm, in which state agencies alerted locals to a nonexistent missile attack, underscores a growing risk of unintended nuclear war with North Korea.” NYT, Jan 15, 2018

““I don’t know if the president is clinically off his rocker. I do know, from what I saw and what I heard from people around him, that Donald Trump is deeply unpredictable, irrational, at times bordering on incoherent, self-obsessed in a disconcerting way, and displays all those kinds of traits that anyone would reasonably say, ‘What’s going on here, is something wrong?’” [Michael Wolff]” The Guardian, Jan 15, 2018

“Mr. Trump received a score of 30 out of 30 on the Montréal Cognitive Assessment, a well-known test regularly used at hospitals. It asks patients to repeat a list of spoken words, identify pictures of animals like a lion or a camel, draw a cube or draw a clock face set to a particular time.” NYT, Jan 17, 2018

““Through statistical analysis, video evidence, and personal experience, our team has uncovered a disturbing reality. In the majority of cases, US border patrol agents are responsible for the widespread interference with essential humanitarian efforts. The practice of destruction of and interference with aid is not the deviant behavior of a few rogue border patrol agents, it is a systemic feature of enforcement practices in the borderlands.” [No More Deaths]” The Guardian, Jan 18, 2018

““We’ll save a lot. We don’t care. But this isn’t like it used to be where they could vote against you and then you pay them hundreds of millions of dollars,” [Trump] said. “We’re not going to be taken advantage of any longer.”” The Guardian, Dec 21, 2017

World statistics day

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , on October 20, 2015 by xi'an

Today is October 20, World Statistics Day as launched by the UN. And supported by local and international societies. In connection with that day, among many events, the RSS will be hosting a reception, China will hold a seminar in… Xi’an, how appropriate!, my friend Kerrie Mengersen will give a talk at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) on The power and promise of immersive virtual environments. (Bringing her pet crocodile to the talk, hopefully!)

Leuven9And I will also give a talk in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, on Le délicat dilemme des tests d’hypothèse et de leur résolution bayésienne. At ISBA, which stands for Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences and not for the Bayesian society!. within UCL, which stands for Université Catholique de Louvain and not for University College London! (And which is not to be confused with the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, in Leuven, where I was last year for MCqMC. About 25 kilometers away.) In case this is not confusing enough, here are my slides (in English, while the talk will be in French):

big Bayes stories

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 29, 2013 by xi'an

(The following is our preface to the incoming “Big Bayes stories” special issue of Statistical Science, edited by Sharon McGrayne, Kerrie Mengersen and myself.)

Bayesian statistics is now endemic in many areas of scienti c, business and social research. Founded a quarter of a millenium ago, the enabling theory, models and computational tools have expanded exponentially in the past thirty years. So what is it that makes this approach so popular in practice? Now that Bayesian statistics has “grown up”, what has it got to show for it- self? In particular, what real-life problems has it really solved? A number of events motivated us to ask these questions: a conference in honour of Adrian Smith, one of the founders of modern Bayesian Statistics, which showcased a range of research emanating from his seminal work in the field, and the impressive book by Sharon McGrayne, the theory that would not die. At a café in Paris in 2011, we conceived the idea of gathering a similar collection of “Big Bayes stories”, that would demonstrate the appeal of adopting a Bayesian modelling approach in practice. That is, we wanted to collect real cases in which a Bayesian approach had made a significant di fference, either in addressing problems that could not be analysed otherwise, or in generating a new or deeper understanding of the data and the associated real-life problem.

After submitting this proposal to Jon Wellner, editor of Statistical Science, and obtaining his encouragement and support, we made a call for proposals. We received around 30 submissions (for which authors are to be warmly thanked!) and after a regular review process by both Bayesian and non-Bayesian referees (who are also deeply thanked), we ended up with 17 papers that reflected the type of stories we had hoped to hear. Sharon McGrayne, then read each paper with the utmost attention and provided helpful and encouraging comments on all. Sharon became part the editorial team in acknowledgement of this substantial editing contribution, which has made the stories much more enjoyable. In addition, referees who handled several submissions were asked to contribute discussions about the stories and some of them managed to fi nd additional time for this task, providing yet another perspective on the stories..

Bayesian Estimation of Population – Level Trends in Measures of Health Status Mariel M. Finucane, Christopher J. Paciorek, Goodarz Danaei, and Majid Ezzati
Galaxy Formation: Bayesian History Matching for the Observable Universe Ian Vernon, Michael Goldstein, and Richard G Bower
Estimating the Distribution of Dietary Consumption Patterns Raymond James Carroll
Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations Adrian E. Raftery, Leontine Alkema, and Patrick Gerland
From Science to Management: Using Bayesian Networks to Learn about Lyngbya Sandra Johnson, Eva Abal, Kathleen Ahern, and Grant Hamilton
Search for the Wreckage of Air France Flight AF 447 Lawrence D Stone, Colleen M. Keller, Thomas M Kratzke, and Johan P Strumpfer
Finding the most distant quasars using Bayesian selection methods Daniel Mortlock
Estimation of HIV burden through Bayesian evidence synthesis Daniela De Angelis, Anne M Presanis, Stefano Conti, and A E Ades
Experiences in Bayesian Inference in Baltic Salmon Management Sakari Kuikka, Jarno Vanhatalo, Henni Pulkkinen, Samu Mäntyniemi, and Jukka Corander

As can be gathered from the table of contents, the spectrum of applications ranges across astronomy, epidemiology, ecology and demography, with the special case of the Air France wreckage story also reported in the paper- back edition of the theory that would not die. What made those cases so well suited for a Bayesian solution? In some situations, the prior or the expert opinion was crucial; in others, the complexity of the data model called for a hierarchical decomposition naturally provided in a Bayesian framework; and others involved many actors, perspectives and data sources that only Bayesian networks could aggregate. Now, before or (better) after reading those stories, one may wonder whether or not the “plus” brought by the Bayesian paradigm was truly significant. We think they did, at one level or another of the statistical analysis, while we acknowledge that in several cases other statistical perspectives or even other disciplines could have brought another solution, but presumably at a higher cost.

Now, before or (better) after reading those stories, one may wonder whether or not the \plus” brought by the Bayesian paradigm was truly signifi cant. We think it did, at one level or another of the statistical analysis, while we acknowledge that in several cases other statistical perspectives or even other disciplines could have provided another solution, but presumably at a higher cost. We think this collection of papers constitutes a worthy tribute to the maturity of the Bayesian paradigm, appropriate for commemorating the 250th anniversary of the publication of Bayes’ Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. We thus hope you will enjoy those stories, whether or not Bayesiana is your statistical republic.