Archive for University of Washington

Adrian Raftery’s course in Paris

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , on July 30, 2021 by xi'an
UW Professor and U.S. National Academy of Sciences member Adrian Raftery has received the 2020 FSMP research chair and as a result will be visiting Paris this Fall 2021. He will be located at the MAP5 laboratory at the University of Paris. In particular, he will give a 20-hour Master course on statistical semography. This will be given over four successive Tuesdays, with 5 hours of lectures per week. The course is open to all. Attendance is free of charge but registration is mandatory. (To register, please fill the attached form. Lectures will be given in the salle du conseil, on the 7ft floor of the Saint-Germain-des-Prés campus, 45 rue des Saints-Pères, 75006 Paris.)
Demography aims to estimate and forecast population, fertility, mortality and migration. This is important for government policy-making, private sector planning, and research in the health and social sciences, and also critical for climate science and global health. It has traditionally been done using deterministic mathematical methods, but these ignore uncertainty and measurement error.  In the past decade, modern statistical methods were developed for this by our group at the University of Washington, and these were recently adopted by the  United Nations for their official population forecasts for all countries.  Statistical demography is expanding rapidly,  and this course will teach theory and practice of  methods and models of the field, with a focus on current and potential future research.
The topics will be:
1. Review of basic mathematical demographic methods.
2. Modeling age-specific rates, including model schedules and Lee-Carter method.
3. Statistical modeling and projection of fertility, mortality, migration and population.
4. Reconstructing population and vital rates from imperfect data.