Archive for US elections 2016

a free press needs you [reposted]

Posted in Books, Kids with tags , , , , , , , on August 16, 2018 by xi'an

“Criticizing the news media — for underplaying or overplaying stories, for getting something wrong — is entirely right. News reporters and editors are human, and make mistakes. Correcting them is core to our job. But insisting that truths you don’t like are “fake news” is dangerous to the lifeblood of democracy. And calling journalists the “enemy of the people” is dangerous, period.”

and it only gets worse…

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on December 2, 2017 by xi'an

“You know, the saddest thing is that because I’m the president of the United States, I am not supposed to be involved with the Justice Department,” Mr. Trump said in a radio interview on Thursday on the “Larry O’Connor Show.” “I am not supposed to be involved with the F.B.I. I’m not supposed to be doing the kind of things that I would love to be doing. And I’m very frustrated by it.” NYT, Nov 03, 2017

“Two former US intelligence chiefs have said Donald Trump poses “a peril” to the US because he is vulnerable to being “played” by Russia, after the president said on Saturday he believed Vladimir Putin’s denials of Russian interference in the 2016 election.” The Guardian, Nov 12, 2017

“As a result [of the 44% of vacant seats in the appeal courts], Mr. Trump is poised to bring the conservative legal movement, which took shape in the 1980s in reaction to decades of liberal rulings on issues like the rights of criminal suspects and of women who want abortions, to a new peak of influence over American law and society.” NYT, Nov 11, 2017

“Hunting interests have scored a major victory with the Trump administration’s decision to allow Americans to bring home body parts of elephants shot for sport in Africa. Another totemic species now looks set to follow suit – lions.”  The Guardian, Nov 16, 2017

“Like everything else Trump touches, he hijacks it with his chronic dishonesty and childishness,” said Mark Salter, a longtime adviser to Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona. “The intense, angry and largely ignorant tribalism afflicting our politics predates Trump’s arrival on the scene. But he has infused it with a psychopath’s inability to accept that social norms apply to him.” NYT, November  18, 2017

“We represent a much larger number of concerned mental health professionals who have come forward to warn against the president’s psychological instability and the dangers it poses. We now number in the thousands.” NYT, November 31, 2017

gerrymandering detection by MCMC

Posted in Books, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , on June 16, 2017 by xi'an

In the latest issue of Nature I read (June 8), there is a rather long feature article on mathematical (and statistical) ways of measuring gerrymandering, that is the manipulation of the delimitations of a voting district toward improving the chances of a certain party. (The name comes from Elbridge Gerry (1812) and the salamander shape of the district he created.) The difficulty covered by the article is about detecting gerrymandering, which leads to the challenging and almost philosophical question of defining a “fair” partition of a region into voting districts, when those are not geographically induced. Since each partition does not break the principles of “one person, one vote” and of majority rule. Having a candidate or party win at the global level and loose at every local level seems to go against this majority rule, but with electoral systems like in the US, this frequently happens (with dire consequences in the latest elections). Just another illustration of Simpson’s paradox, essentially. And a damning drawback of multi-tiered electoral systems.

“In order to change the district boundaries, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to produce about 24,000 random but reasonable redistrictings.”

In the arXiv paper that led to this Nature article (along with other studies), Bagiat et al. essentially construct a tail probability to assess how extreme the current district partition is against a theoretical distribution of such partitions. Finding that the actual redistrictings of 2012 and 2016 in North Carolina are “extremely atypical”.  (The generation of random partitions obeyed four rules, namely equal population, geographic compacity and connexity, proximity to county boundaries, and a majority of Afro-American voters in at least two districts, the latest being a requirement in North Carolina. A score function was built by linear combination of four corresponding scores, mostly χ² like, and turned into a density, simulated annealing style. The determination of the final temperature β=1 (p.18) [or equivalently of the weights (p.20)] remains unclear to me. As does the use of more than 10⁵ simulated annealing iterations to produce a single partition (p.18)…

From a broader perspective, agreeing on a method to produce random district allocations could be the way to go towards solving the judicial dilemma in setting new voting maps as what is currently under discussion in the US.

major confUSion

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , on November 19, 2016 by xi'an

crossing the Seine in RER C near Maison de la Radio, Nov. 09, 2012In a recent evening talk-show on France Inter, the French national public radio, the debate was about the [bad] surprise election of the donald and the fact that the media had missed the result, (self-)blaming a disconnection with the “real” country. One of the discussants, Julia Cagé, Professor of Economics at Science Po’, started the discussion with the amazing confusion [at 5’55”] between the probability that Hillary Clinton would win [evaluated at 84% on the last day] and the percentage of votes in her favour [which was around that figure in Manhattan]…

On a related if minor theme, my post on Flaxman et al.’s early [if preliminary] analysis of the said election got so many views that it became the most popular post for 2016! (If not competing with Ross Ihaka’s call to simply start over with R!)

And yet another related entry today in Libération, blaming the disastrous result partly on the social media and their algorithms (again!) that favour items of information (or dis-information) from the same perspective and do not rank those items by their reliability… The author of the tribune is an econometrician at Essec, but there is no methodological content in this ideological entry that seems to call for a super-monitor which would impose (how?) diversity and (which?) ranking on social media. A post-truth era, for sure! Shifting the blame from the deplorable voters themselves to anything else…

analysing the US election result, from Oxford, England

Posted in pictures, R, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , on November 14, 2016 by xi'an

Holywell St., Oxford, Feb. 22, 2012Seth Flaxman (Oxford), Dougal J. Sutherland (UCL), Yu-Xiang Wang (CMU), and Yee Whye Teh (Oxford), published on arXiv this morning an analysis of the US election, in what they called most appropriately a post-mortem. Using ecological inference already employed after Obama’s re-election. And producing graphs like the following one:elecons

A tyring day…

Posted in pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , on November 9, 2016 by xi'an

An exciting and explosive Election day in Warwick, if unconnected with the US elections, since my bike front tube first lost its valve to the pump [if not to the trump!] and then the replacement tube exploded one hour later, presumably a combination of high pressure and hot temperatures. [Disclaimer: Any similarity with current events and overblown egos is purely based on hot air. Any hope of seeing the situation deflating nicely is alas fizzling out really fast…]

hold your breath for a few more hours…

Posted in pictures with tags , , , , , on November 8, 2016 by xi'an

Central Park, New York, Sep. 25, 2011“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way…” Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities