Archive for US elections 2016

major confUSion

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , on November 19, 2016 by xi'an

crossing the Seine in RER C near Maison de la Radio, Nov. 09, 2012In a recent evening talk-show on France Inter, the French national public radio, the debate was about the [bad] surprise election of the donald and the fact that the media had missed the result, (self-)blaming a disconnection with the “real” country. One of the discussants, Julia Cagé, Professor of Economics at Science Po’, started the discussion with the amazing confusion [at 5’55”] between the probability that Hillary Clinton would win [evaluated at 84% on the last day] and the percentage of votes in her favour [which was around that figure in Manhattan]…

On a related if minor theme, my post on Flaxman et al.’s early [if preliminary] analysis of the said election got so many views that it became the most popular post for 2016! (If not competing with Ross Ihaka’s call to simply start over with R!)

And yet another related entry today in Libération, blaming the disastrous result partly on the social media and their algorithms (again!) that favour items of information (or dis-information) from the same perspective and do not rank those items by their reliability… The author of the tribune is an econometrician at Essec, but there is no methodological content in this ideological entry that seems to call for a super-monitor which would impose (how?) diversity and (which?) ranking on social media. A post-truth era, for sure! Shifting the blame from the deplorable voters themselves to anything else…

analysing the US election result, from Oxford, England

Posted in pictures, R, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , on November 14, 2016 by xi'an

Holywell St., Oxford, Feb. 22, 2012Seth Flaxman (Oxford), Dougal J. Sutherland (UCL), Yu-Xiang Wang (CMU), and Yee Whye Teh (Oxford), published on arXiv this morning an analysis of the US election, in what they called most appropriately a post-mortem. Using ecological inference already employed after Obama’s re-election. And producing graphs like the following one:elecons

A tyring day…

Posted in pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , on November 9, 2016 by xi'an

An exciting and explosive Election day in Warwick, if unconnected with the US elections, since my bike front tube first lost its valve to the pump [if not to the trump!] and then the replacement tube exploded one hour later, presumably a combination of high pressure and hot temperatures. [Disclaimer: Any similarity with current events and overblown egos is purely based on hot air. Any hope of seeing the situation deflating nicely is alas fizzling out really fast…]

hold your breath for a few more hours…

Posted in pictures with tags , , , , , on November 8, 2016 by xi'an

Central Park, New York, Sep. 25, 2011“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way…” Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities